Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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770 FXUS62 KMFL 221358 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 958 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the local waters this morning as well as portions of the eastern half of the region. Plenty of moisture remains in place as the PWAT values from the 12Z KMFL sounding came in at 2.02 inches. With moisture advection continuing throughout the day, these values will rise and will range between 2.1 and 2.3 inches across most of the region this afternoon. As east to southeasterly wind flow increases, convection will gradually shift and push more towards the interior and west as the afternoon progresses. With rather poor mid level lapse rates (6.1-6.4 C/km) combined with weak effective bulk shear values, the chances for strong thunderstorms remain somewhat limited. However, as CAPE values increase and range between 3500 and 4000 J/KG this afternoon, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. The best chances of strong thunderstorm development will remain over interior portions of Southwest Florida. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper 80s across the east coast, and into the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. Heat index values will generally range from 102 to 107 this afternoon, however, some interior locations across Southwest Florida could see these values approach 110 for brief periods of time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Overall this weekend will have better chances for showers and thunderstorms across South Florida than we`ve seen in recent days, but by no means will it be a washout. Mid-level ridging will remain over the region today, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic resulting in a light east-southeast flow. Moisture advection will take place throughout the day, with PWAT values rising to around between 2.2 inches, bringing an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The main focus of convection will still be sea breeze driven, however, with the lighter steering flow in place, convection may linger closer to the East Coast metro areas upon development before slowly pushing towards the interior and Gulf Coast. Some stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out mainly across the interior sections this afternoon, and they could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 80s along the East Coast to the lower 90s across interior and Gulf Coast areas, with heat index values across the region in the low 100s. On Sunday, a mid-level trough will dip southward across the Great Lakes, starting a gradual breakdown of the dominant mid-level ridge that has been sitting over the region. The expansive surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will also weaken and retreat, weakening the east-southeast surface flow over South Florida. Despite this change, there will still be enough flow to focus most convection across the western half of South Florida. With better instability and forcing from the weakening ridge, shower and thunderstorm chances will be higher than on Saturday. High temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices around 100. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 On Monday, a more notable shift in the weather pattern is expected as the surface flow is to become more southerly. This is due to the waning influence of a surface high over the western Atlantic. The shift in the surface flow will concentrate convection primarily across inland areas, particularly around the lake and other inland locations, where boundary collisions will be more frequent. During this period, deeper tropical moisture (PWATs exceeding 2 inches) from the ongoing Central American Gyre (C.A.G.) will continue to move into South Florida, sustaining elevated rain chances each afternoon. It is important to note that the NBMs PoPs are too high, so a reduction has been implemented. As we progress into mid to late week, mid-level troughing will become established over the eastern United States, accompanied by a surface frontal boundary extending into the southeastern United States. In response, surface winds will veer southwesterly across South Florida. This will promote the inland progression of the Gulf sea breeze while confining the Atlantic sea breeze to the East Coast. As a result, the highest concentration of convection is expected along the East Coast metro areas from Tuesday through late week. With PWATs ranging between 1.8 and 2.2 inches and light 500mb flow in place, localized flooding remains a concern, particularly in urban areas that experienced significant rainfall last week. The south to southwest flow will support seasonal temperatures throughout the forecast period with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices exceeding 100. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 729 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the ESE and will range between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will develop near the terminals as the sea breezes push inland this afternoon. This could result in periods of sub-VFR conditions near storms with the highest chances of visibility reductions at KAPF. Winds will also shift to the SW in the afternoon at KAPF as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually veer and become more southerly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet through the first part of the weekend before subsiding to 2 feet or less during the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day and could result in locally higher winds and waves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic Coast Beaches through this evening. The rip current risk could remain elevated through the rest of the weekend and into early next week as onshore flow remains in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 89 79 / 60 40 70 40 West Kendall 90 77 90 76 / 60 40 70 30 Opa-Locka 90 78 90 78 / 60 40 70 40 Homestead 89 78 88 78 / 60 40 70 40 Fort Lauderdale 88 80 88 79 / 50 40 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 89 78 / 60 40 60 30 Pembroke Pines 92 80 91 79 / 60 40 60 40 West Palm Beach 90 78 89 77 / 60 30 60 30 Boca Raton 90 79 89 78 / 50 40 60 30 Naples 92 77 90 76 / 70 50 70 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC