554
FXUS62 KMFL 221651
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1251 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Mid-level high pressure remains well-established over the Gulf of
Mexico including the peninsula of Florida. A surface boundary
remains to the south of the area separating drier air from the
tropical airmass in the Caribbean. The combination of the drier
air and high pressure aloft will again bring shower and
thunderstorm chances below climatological norms for this time of
year today and again on Monday. A warming trend commences as we
head into Monday but the dewpoint recovery may take a bit longer
thanks to a lack of atmospheric moisture transport from the
tropics. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s generally with heat
index values in the lower 100s.

The light northerly to northeasterly drainage flow returns tonight
and will again lead to a light and variable start for Monday.
Eventually easterly flow will pick up as the pressure gradient
tightens between high pressure to the north and the boundary to the
south. Morning coastal showers will transition inland and west
through the afternoon and evening before the remnant convection
focuses over the local waters overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Models begin the long term with a mid-level ridge over the GOMEX
gradually migrating east and across the region through around the
middle of the work week. At the same time, the dominant high
pressure system centered over the SEc CONUS also migrates eastward
into the W Atlantic, while a remnant frontal boundary continues to
linger over the Florida Keys. As these synoptic features move closer
to each other, pressure gradients across the area will become
tighter, with sfc wind speeds gradually increasing. Flow veers to a
more SSE flow by the end of the work week, with breezy periods
expected each day.

In terms of chances for rain, the influence of the aforementioned
mid level ridge will combine with the high pressure to the north of
the peninsula to keep a drier air mass in place on Tuesday. With the
lingering boundary over the Florida keys, POPs for Tuesday afternoon
remain in the 20-40 percent range, with the highest chances over the
west coast and the southern tip of Florida. Sea breezes may again
become focal points for deep convection and thunderstorm activity
during the afternoon hours.

The forecast scenario for the rest of the long term becomes rather
complicated as uncertainty increases towards the end of the work
week. Long range models remain divergent regarding potential and
timing of possible tropical development over the west GOMEX.
Regardless of the final outcome, there is enough consensus about a
plume of tropical moisture over the west caribbean reaching the
peninsula and bringing increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage for
SoFlo. POPs increase into the 50-60 percent range for the Wed-Fri
timeframe, with possible widespread showers and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours.
Highest level of uncertainty remains in the forecast scenario for
the weekend, which will continue to evolve as new model guidance
becomes available.

High temperatures on Tuesday should generally remain in the lower
90s, then slightly cooler for the rest of the week as cloud cover
and shower activity increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A few showers and storms this afternoon and early evening may result
in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds, but mainly VFR
conditions with onshore flow should prevail. Wind will lighten and
become variable overnight. Morning Atlantic showers return and
the focus should shift inland and west near the end of the period
but chances are too low to mention or restrict.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Generally light winds will continue with a decaying frontal boundary
lingering south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be much
less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a
frontal passage. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may
accompany any thunderstorm that forms. Winds will veer easterly and
strengthen early in the week as the pressure gradient across the
region tightens. Eyes will turn to potential tropical development in
the northwestern Caribbean mid to late week which could cause
deteriorating conditions across the local waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as
northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor
coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low-
lying coastal areas. The Coastal Flood Statement has been extended
into Monday. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues
for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of days.

High Tide Tides...
* Virginia Key - 1:13 PM Sun, 1:21 AM Mon, 2:09 PM Mon
* South Port Everglades - 12:30 PM Sun, 12:40 AM Mon, 1:28 PM Mon
* Lake Worth Pier - 12:14 PM Sun, 12:25 AM Mon, 1:14 PM Mon
* Naples Bay, North - 5:50 PM Sun, 4:16 AM Mon, 7:21 PM Mon
* Flamingo Visitors Center - 7:53 PM Sun, 7:12 AM Mon, 9:02 PM Mon

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  79  90 /  10  20  20  30
West Kendall     75  92  76  90 /  20  20  20  40
Opa-Locka        78  92  78  91 /  10  20  20  30
Homestead        77  90  78  90 /  20  20  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  79  88 /  10  20  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  78  90  79  90 /  10  20  20  30
Pembroke Pines   78  92  79  92 /  10  20  20  30
West Palm Beach  78  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  20
Boca Raton       78  91  79  90 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           77  92  76  93 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAG