Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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535 FXUS62 KMFL 151735 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 135 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...Increasing Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches Through Monday... ...Coastal Flood Statement All Coast Areas... ...Scattered To Numerous Storms Possible This Week... ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A mid to upper broad low pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States as a board surface trough remains over the Lake Okeechobee region. This will keep a light south to southwest steering flow over South Florida along with PWAT values around the 2 to 2.1 inch range. This weather pattern will allow for the scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue to over the southern areas of South Florida through the evening before dissipating tonight. The showers and thunderstorms will then redevelop over South Florida on Monday and focus over the eastern areas of South Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. A few of the storms could be strong this afternoon and again Monday afternoon over the eastern areas where the sea breezes collide. The primary impacts will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. The winds will be light tonight over South Florida along with high humidity. At the same time, the grounds are becoming saturated over the region. This combination of the two should allow for some fog formation over the interior and west coast metro areas late tonight into early Monday morning with the best coverage over the interior areas. Therefore, Patchy to areas of fog has been added to the forecast for the interior and west coast metro areas for late tonight into early Monday morning. Lows tonight will fall down into the mid to upper 70s over most areas except around 80 over the metro areas. Highs on Monday will again get up into the lower to mid 90s over South Florida with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This will allow for the heat indices to increase again into the 105 to 110 range over South Florida. Therefore, a heat advisory could again be needed for portions of South Florida on Monday and will let the night shift decide if one needs to be put up for Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The stagnant/blocking pattern will remain in place over the eastern US through the week with SFL generally lying along the southern periphery of the eastern US trough. The surface gradient will remain light favoring sea-breeze driven winds through much of the week. PWATs will largely remain in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range (near to just above climo) through mid-week although similar to Monday there could be some spatial variation within our area depending on the positioning/orientation of the tropical moisture plume. This setup will generally favor near to slightly above normal rain chances through most of the period (largely 40 to 60% range), with the main question marks being the timing of any shortwaves which pivot into the area,and where the max PWATs align. Temperatures and heat indices will be near to just above normal through the period (highs in the upper 80s to low 90s). The center of the closed low/trough may shift southward closer to the area late next week into next weekend which would result in cooler temperatures aloft, drier air, and perhaps even some cooling at the surface, but as is typical with blocking patterns and cut-off lows, confidence in this evolution is low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Light westerly flow continues through the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms potentially impacting sites through around 00Z. Very light and variable flow overnight will potentially become easterly-southeasterly at east coast sites if sea breeze is able to push far enough inland although there is some uncertainty with this solution. Patchy fog is possible for APF during the morning hours although not enough confidence to include in TAF yet. Additional convection may impact sites during the morning hours and continue through the afternoon tomorrow. && && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most of this week as a frontal boundary and associated low pressure remain north of the area. Seas over the Gulf waters will generally be 2 feet or less with seas increasing this afternoon into Monday over the Atlantic waters as northerly swell generated by low pressure off the SE Coast moves in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The threat of rip currents will continue to increase along the east coast beaches of South Florida this afternoon into Monday due to a northeast swell working into these waters from the North. The treat should then decrease for the middle to end of this week, as the northeast swell dissipate. From this afternoon through the middle of the week, there will be the potential for minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full moon. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 93 78 89 / 30 60 30 50 West Kendall 78 93 76 91 / 30 60 30 50 Opa-Locka 79 93 78 91 / 30 60 30 50 Homestead 80 92 78 89 / 30 50 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 78 89 / 30 60 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 78 90 / 30 60 40 50 Pembroke Pines 79 93 78 92 / 30 60 30 50 West Palm Beach 77 93 78 90 / 20 50 30 50 Boca Raton 79 92 78 91 / 20 50 40 50 Naples 80 90 78 90 / 10 30 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BNB LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Rizzuto