Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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679 FXUS62 KMFL 161121 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 721 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A change in the weather pattern begins across South Florida today as mid to upper level ridging builds into the Southeastern part of the country. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Northeast will shift into the western Atlantic off of the New England coastline. This will help to shift the winds across the region to an easterly direction heading into this afternoon. With PWAT values still ranging between 2.0 and 2.3 inches across most of the area today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop as diurnal heating increases. The main driver for convection today will be the sea breeze boundaries as they push inland. With easterly wind flow taking over, the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the interior and west coast this afternoon and this evening. While there will still be an increased amount of cloud cover through a good portion of the day, there will be some areas that see more peaks of sun which could increase instability especially over the interior portions this afternoon. While the potential for strong thunderstorm development will be low, it cannot be completely ruled out mainly over interior portions of Southwest Florida where sea breeze and outflow boundaries will interact with each other. High temperatures will be a bit warmer then what they have been recently as they will rise into the upper 80s along the east coast and into the lower 90s across the interior sections. Heading into Monday, the mid to upper level ridge centered over the Carolinas will strengthen as the day progresses. At the surface, high pressure centered to the northeast in the western Atlantic will also strengthen as it expands southwestward. This will help to increase the pressure gradient across South Florida allowing for easterly winds to increase bring breezy conditions to the region heading into the afternoon hours. This will also usher in some drier air in the mid levels which will cause the PWAT values to fall to around 1.5 inches near the Lake Okeechobee region, however, PWAT values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches will still hold on across the southern areas. Enough moisture will be in place to support the development of convection through the day. The focus will shift from the east coast in the morning, to the interior and west coast during the afternoon hours. With plenty of subsidence and drier air pushing into the mid levels, convection will be shallow and fast moving as the potential for strong thunderstorm development will remain very limited. High temperatures on Monday will generally range from the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior. | && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 To wrap up the first half of the week, models continue to indicate a surface high pressure building across the FL Peninsula from the west Atlantic and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the normal summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze convection and activity. The prevailing easterly wind direction should favor better chances for showers and thunderstorms over the interior & Gulf Coast as the east coast sea breezes should start early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. However, scattered showers and a few strong storms may still affect some of the east coast metro areas, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weak start of the sea breeze circulations. However, lower PWATs (~1.5"), and forecast QPF, are indicating the potential for light showers ahead. As we move into the latter half of the week, disagreement in the deterministic and ensembles leave minor confidence in the long term forecast across South FL. The latest run of the Euro and GFS ensembles indicate the potential for a shortwave flow, with a surface low, approach from the Bahamas. However, model guidance continues to vary as to where the impact "bullseye" hits in Florida/southeastern US, but one agreement - there will be an increase in moisture approach from the southeast (PWATS >2.0") as we reach the late week and weekend. Details to be determined as we move into the week. Throughout the week as a whole, high temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the east later this morning. Scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon, however, they should remain away from the terminals as they push towards the interior. The exception to this will be at KAPF, where showers and thunderstorms may develop near the terminal heading into the mid to late afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters today will become moderate to fresh heading into the early portion of the week. Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The rip current risk across the Atlantic coast beaches will gradually increase for the early to middle portion of the week as onshore flow increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 88 79 / 30 20 40 30 West Kendall 90 77 89 77 / 30 20 40 30 Opa-Locka 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 30 Homestead 88 79 88 79 / 30 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 80 86 80 / 40 20 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 79 87 79 / 40 20 40 30 Pembroke Pines 91 79 91 80 / 30 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 89 78 88 78 / 40 20 40 30 Boca Raton 89 79 89 79 / 40 20 40 30 Naples 91 77 92 77 / 60 30 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...ATV