Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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551 FXUS62 KMFL 051143 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 743 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The surface ridge will continue to lose its strength on Wednesday, but will remain enough of a factor to keep a general easterly wind regime in the low levels and at the surface. However, a slight veering to an E-SE direction is likely since the high is weakening and a shortwave trough of low pressure begins to approach from the Gulf. With the surface high still hovering nearby, subsidence and mid- level drier air will inhibit the overall convective potential particularly from a large scale perspective. Nevertheless, the gulf and sea breezes will act as sources of lift during the afternoon and evening hours with some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. Highest PoPs will be towards the interior and west coast around 40-50% as an easterly- southeasterly regime favors those areas. The main hazards will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning with any storms. Temperatures are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s near the coasts and mid to upper 90s over the interior sections. Heading into Thursday, large scale troughing will set up across the eastern Seaboard with a mid-level shortwave forming along the southern edge of it. This will assist in helping provide an extra lifting mechanism in addition to the daily afternoon sea and gulf breezes, which is likely to result in convective showers and storms becoming more widespread on Thursday. Hazard potential will continue to be for periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, hail, and frequent lightning. Temperatures could see a slight uptick on Thursday with the vast majority of locations likely reaching the 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 As the weekend approaches, the southern edge of the synoptic scale trough axis will swing through the Florida Peninsula. In response to this, the low level wind regime will shift westerly/southwesterly and reverse the areas favored for precipitation to the east coast metro and eastern interior areas as the east coast sea breeze will not be able to penetrate inland and will stall over the east coast metro. Thus, expect the brunt of showers and thunderstorms that form in the South Florida region to be observed over the east coast metro. The main energy from this trough will depart the region by Sunday morning, which then allows subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic to expand back over South Florida again. In addition, drier air will filter into the area, helping to further minimize convective potential. That said, daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible as a result of mesoscale boundaries. For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically as some guidance highlights potential for a tropical wave to impact the area and other guidance shows it avoiding the area. If this feature continues to show signs of materializing in future guidance and could pose threats to our region, then potential impacts will be described. However, conditions are highly uncertain at this time and thus this needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now. Temperatures are expected to increase in the weekend timeframe with mid to upper 90s expected for most areas, except likely in the low 90s for the west coast. Some spots in the interior have the potential to hit triple digits. Furthermore, heat indices will climb into the mid 100s for most areas under southwest flow, and thus there will be potential for heat advisories. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 703 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR continues at all terminals through around 15Z, then VCSH could result in brief sub-VFR cigs/vis for the Atlantic sites. APF has better chances at thunderstorm activity after 18Z. ESE Winds increase to around 10kt this afternoon, then light and variable later in the evening. Only exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops with afternoon Gulf breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Benign conditions will be in place for the rest of the week with seas at 2 feet or less and winds mostly at 5-10kts. The only concerns will arise when any scattered showers or storms are observed on a local scale each day, which may create locally chaotic seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A moderate risk of rip currents expected today for all Atlantic beaches as easterly winds prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 92 79 / 50 30 60 40 West Kendall 91 76 93 76 / 50 30 60 30 Opa-Locka 91 79 93 78 / 50 30 60 40 Homestead 89 77 91 77 / 50 30 60 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 90 79 / 50 30 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 79 91 78 / 50 30 60 40 Pembroke Pines 93 80 94 79 / 50 30 60 40 West Palm Beach 90 77 93 75 / 50 30 60 30 Boca Raton 91 77 93 77 / 50 30 60 40 Naples 93 78 93 78 / 50 40 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...Culver