785
FXUS62 KMFL 240545
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
145 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mid-lvl ridging will remain positioned over the area for one more
day maintaining warm temperatures aloft, a layer of mid-lvl dry
air, and synoptic subsidence over South Florida. Rain chances will
be limited to isolated-scattered coastal convergence showers over
the east coast (the best set-up for this looks to be this AM over
Palm Beach county), and scattered thunderstorms over SW Florida
this afternoon as the synoptic easterly flow encounters the nearly
pinned Gulf breeze. Seasonably warm temperatures can be expected
with highs in the low 90s near the east coast and mid 90s over
Interior and SW Florida.

We will begin to see the first fringe impacts from PTC 9 over SFL
tonight into Wednesday as deep tropical moisture begins to advect
northward, as evidenced by PWATs increasing over 2.2 inches by
Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances will increase from north to
south tonight (although likely confined to the waters and coastal
regions), with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected during the day on Wednesday. Additionally southeasterly
winds will become increasingly breezy with gusts 25 to 30mph
Wednesday afternoon. However the circulation of the developing
system should remain far enough to our east that a wash-out does
not look likely, and the most significant impacts from the system
likely will likely hold off until the long-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the middle to latter portion of the week, all eyes turn to
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it moves up from the Carribean
Sea and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, deep
tropical moisture will push into the region which will gradually
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
through Friday. While the exact details still remain uncertain,
confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall and
some flooding concerns during this time frame. The latest WPC
excessive rainfall outlooks put us in a marginal risk (Level 1 out
of 4) on Wednesday, and a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for the
west coast on Thursday. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned,
uncertainty still remains high and will depend on the exact track
of the system. If the storm were to track further to the east,
this would increase the rainfall totals across the region,
however, a track further to the west would decrease these totals.
In general, rainfall amounts from Wednesday through Friday evening
look to range from 2 to 5 inches across the region with locally
higher amounts. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses. With the increased cloud cover through the middle to
the end of the week, high temperatures could be held down and
remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest guidance suite is
hinting at mid level ridging building over the area on Saturday
and Sunday. At the surface, southwesterly wind flow will help to
keep deep layer moisture advection in place as the moisture tail
from what is left of PTC 9 could remain parked over the region.
With an abundance of moisture across the region, this could keep
the enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms in place during
this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of the
forecast as well as it will be dependent on exactly where this
moisture tail sets up. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses. With southwesterly wind flow in place, high
temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s across
Southwest Florida to the lower 90s across the east coast metro
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning,
although temporary restrictions in showers will be possible at
KPBI. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers will be possible
through the day with thunder chances mostly confined to KAPF.
Winds will generally remain easterly through the period with gusts
15 to 20kts possible during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Easterly winds will become fresh over the waters today as the
gradient strengthens to the north of PTC 9 in the NW Caribbean.
Winds and seas will then turn hazardous on Wednesday as the
disturbance intensifies and lifts northward into the SE GOM, with
tropical storm conditions possible over the Gulf waters and Gale
conditions possible on the Atlantic waters on Thursday. The
chances of showers and thunderstorms will also increase Wednesday
into the late-week period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Minor coastal flooding will remain possible over the east coast
today but should generally be spotty as astronomical tides
decrease. Moderate to major coastal flooding can be expected over
the Gulf coast late Wednesday into Thursday as PTC 9 strengthens
and tracks through the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Strengthening onshore flow will result in an extended period of
high rip current risk over the east coast (likely through the
workweek), with potentially hazardous surf developing over the
Palm Beaches in the mid-week period. Additionally hazardous beach
conditions look likely over the Gulf coast beaches starting
Thursday as surf increases in association with PTC9.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  89  79 /  30  60  80  90
West Kendall     92  78  89  78 /  40  60  80  90
Opa-Locka        92  80  90  79 /  30  60  80  90
Homestead        90  80  88  79 /  40  60  80  90
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  88  78 /  30  60  80  80
N Ft Lauderdale  90  80  89  79 /  30  60  80  80
Pembroke Pines   92  80  90  80 /  30  60  80  90
West Palm Beach  90  79  89  79 /  30  50  80  70
Boca Raton       90  79  90  79 /  40  50  80  80
Naples           94  79  90  78 /  40  30  80  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Storm Surge Watch for FLZ069-075.

     Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ069-075.

AM...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Carr