275
FXUS62 KMFL 261525
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1125 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1124 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

South Florida remains embedded in a weak synoptic flow regime,
characterized by a light westerly flow pattern from SFC to 500 mb.
This westerly flow has favored the spawning of convection early this
morning, with a disorganized cluster of pulse storms traversing the
interior and already reaching the east coast as of 11 am this
morning. With PW of 2.11 inches (per 12Z MFL sounding) and
aforementioned lighter flow regime, localized flooding will be the
primary concern/hazard today. The primary areas of focus will be
where the Atlantic sea-breeze circulation intersects outflow from
storms traversing the interior, as this is likely where highest low-
level convergence and mesoscale forcing for ascent will be realized.
With a footprint of higher rainfall over much of the east coast
yesterday and continued rainfall threat today, we cannot rule out an
isolated flash flooding instance.

Tomorrow will feature little deviation in the overall synoptic
regime, though a subtle warming aloft will result in weaker lapse
rates, and perhaps a subtle downward trend in overall atmospheric
moisture (PW). WSW surface/boundary layer winds will continue to
favor the development of convection initially spawning over the
interior, with a gradually progression towards the east coast and
eventual interaction with the Atlantic sea-breeze and associated low-
level convergence zones. Expect similarity high rainfall chances
tomorrow, with urban flooding again being the primary concern
through this period.

Warm and generally seasonable temperatures can be expected through
tomorrow, with maximum temperatures ranging from upper 80s/lower
90s. Overnight, mild/warm temperatures in the low to mid 70s can be
expected for the interior/coasts respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Overall, the typical summertime pattern will continue through most
of the long term period with warm temperatures and daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. There will be a gradual transition at the
synoptic scale from Friday through the weekend as weak mid-level
troughing over the Florida Peninsula finally gets kicked out by
extensive mid-level ridging building over the Gulf states.
Throughout this time period, mesoscale dynamics will be the primary
driver of convective initiation, with near-normal PWAT values
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With steady
easterly flow at the surface, the convection regime will generally
follow isolated showers or storms over the East Coast Metro in the
morning, then increasing in coverage and shifting over the interior
and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening.
Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak
flow pattern.

One factor in the forecast that could lead to less convective
activity is the potential for the first notable Saharan Air Layer
(SAL) plume to move over South Florida over the weekend into early
next week. This would be pretty typical for late June or early July
in our area, but the only impact aside from slightly hazy skies
would be the drier air dampening daytime convection a bit.

Temperatures for the long term period will remain near to just above
our seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and
peak heat indices in the triple digits. Overnight lows will be in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the morning hours, though
MVFR conditions may linger for an hour or two at near/over APF.
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, as SCT/NMRS
TSRA develop this afternoon due to westerly surface winds
converging with the Atlantic sea-breeze. As a result, brief
IFR/LIFR conditions may be realized over TAF sites, and short-
fused TEMPOs could be necessary. W/SW winds generally become
light/vrb after 00Z. Sea breezes may cause SSE/WSW wind shift over
east/west coasts respectively.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local
waters for most of the week. Both Atlantic and Gulf waters will
be generally benign, with seas no greater than 1 to 2 feet.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher
winds and seas each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  92  78 /  80  20  60  20
West Kendall     91  75  92  76 /  80  30  60  10
Opa-Locka        91  77  92  78 /  80  20  60  20
Homestead        91  77  91  78 /  80  20  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  90  78 /  80  30  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  77  92  78 /  80  20  60  20
Pembroke Pines   92  78  93  79 /  80  30  60  20
West Palm Beach  90  75  92  76 /  80  20  60  20
Boca Raton       90  76  92  77 /  80  20  60  20
Naples           89  79  90  79 /  70  10  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...SRB