949
FXUS62 KMFL 261157
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
757 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A rather typical summertime weather pattern will continue across
South Florida through Thursday with the region sitting under weak
mid-level troughing. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be around each day, fueled by diurnal heating and deep moisture
pooled over the area. With the low-level winds being weak out of the
W-SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first
developing along sea breeze boundaries late morning/early afternoon,
then moving over the interior/East Coast metro areas. A few storms
could become strong, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy downpours. Slow storm motions may result in
localized flooding concerns for poor drainage areas, or locations
hit with multiple rounds of storms.

Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each
day, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm,
dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low
80s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Overall, the typical summertime pattern will continue through most
of the long term period with warm temperatures and daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. There will be a gradual transition at the
synoptic scale from Friday through the weekend as weak mid-level
troughing over the Florida Peninsula finally gets kicked out by
extensive mid-level ridging building over the Gulf states.
Throughout this time period, mesoscale dynamics will be the primary
driver of convective initiation, with near-normal PWAT values
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With steady
easterly flow at the surface, the convection regime will generally
follow isolated showers or storms over the East Coast Metro in the
morning, then increasing in coverage and shifting over the interior
and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening.
Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak
flow pattern.

One factor in the forecast that could lead to less convective
activity is the potential for the first notable Saharan Air Layer
(SAL) plume to move over South Florida over the weekend into early
next week. This would be pretty typical for late June or early July
in our area, but the only impact aside from slightly hazy skies
would be the drier air dampening daytime convection a bit.

Temperatures for the long term period will remain near to just above
our seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and
peak heat indices in the triple digits. Overnight lows will be in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the morning hours, though
MVFR conditions may linger for an hour or two at near/over APF.
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, as SCT/NMRS
TSRA develop this afternoon due to westerly surface winds
converging with the Atlantic sea-breeze. As a result, brief
IFR/LIFR conditions may be realized over TAF sites, and short-
fused TEMPOs could be necessary. W/SW winds generally become
light/vrb after 00Z. Sea breezes may cause SSE/WSW wind shift over
east/west coasts respectively.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local
waters for most of the week, resulting in generally benign
conditions. Both Atlantic and Gulf seas will be quite smooth at
generally 1 foot or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
could result in locally higher winds and seas each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  92  78 /  80  20  60  20
West Kendall     91  75  92  76 /  80  30  60  10
Opa-Locka        91  77  92  78 /  80  20  60  20
Homestead        91  77  91  78 /  80  20  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  90  78 /  80  30  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  77  92  78 /  80  20  60  20
Pembroke Pines   92  78  93  79 /  80  30  60  20
West Palm Beach  90  75  92  76 /  80  20  60  20
Boca Raton       90  76  92  77 /  80  20  60  20
Naples           89  79  90  79 /  70  10  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...SRB