Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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429 FXUS62 KMFL 311137 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 737 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Today, a weakening upper flow and the eastward departure of the upper-level shortwave into the western Atlantic waters will be observed. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur further westward, primarily in the southwestern coastal and interior regions. While storm activity will be suppressed compared to earlier in the week, it will still bring potential impacts, including strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. Afternoon high temperatures for the remainder of the week will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures expected in the western parts of the region. The eastern metro area will remain below heat advisory criteria, with apparent temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Pleasant weather and a less oppressive temperature regime will continue across South Florida through the weekend, thanks to a backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain east-northeasterly winds, resulting in a milder breeze from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving, low-topped showers along the east coast at times, with most convection occurring over the interior and southwestern parts of the region. A generally quiet synoptic regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, though a few strong pulse storms may develop in highly unstable areas of the interior. Early to mid-next week, winds will gradually shift from the east, leading to a slight increase in temperatures across the region. Morning showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected along the east coast, gradually drifting westward towards the interior. A much-needed reprieve from oppressive temperatures can be expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more manageable 65-68 degrees, resulting in lower apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming trend will take place towards the early to middle portions of next week, with high temperatures climbing back into the low/mid 90s across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 736 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions through the 12Z TAF period. Light easterly winds this morning will pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts starting this afternoon. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF this afternoon. VCTS only entered at APF today as SW FL is expected to see the highest chances of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Boating conditions will remain generally benign through the end of the week. By the weekend however, wave heights are expected to increase over the Atlantic waters, potentially reaching 5 to 6 feet due to the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds will also increase from the east-northeast, reaching up to 20 knots. This will likely prompt a Small Craft Advisory beginning as early as this evening. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and seas periodically. && .BEACHES... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front, will increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 608 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building north of the area will keep east to northeast winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around 35% across interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50% along the coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily focused over the interior and southwest areas, initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Afternoon dispersion values will range from very good to locally excellent. The combination of high dispersion and dry fuels over the interior and southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire conditions that will have to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Kendall 91 75 89 75 / 10 10 40 40 Opa-Locka 91 77 88 76 / 10 10 40 40 Homestead 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 86 77 / 10 10 40 40 Pembroke Pines 93 78 90 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Palm Beach 90 77 87 75 / 10 10 30 30 Boca Raton 90 77 87 76 / 10 10 40 40 Naples 96 74 95 74 / 40 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Culver