948
FXUS62 KMFL 211156
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
756 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Models were very successful in depicting the drying trend expected
for the weekend as there was significantly less convection and
shower coverage yesterday compared to previous days. Ensembles and
GFS remain consistent in keeping weak, generally NE sfc flow across
SoFlo through the rest of the weekend in the wake of a FROPA.
Meanwhile, a weak mid level trough still lingers over the SE CONUS
and northern FL, but will begin pushing a little further southeast
later today as high pressure expands over the TX region.

Drier conditions should prevail today and tomorrow with highest POPs
down into the 20-30 percent range each afternoon, with best chances
over the southern-most portions of the peninsula. Daytime heating
and sea breeze/outflow boundaries could again provide enough lifting
for a few storms to develop. Pressure gradients remain weak during
the weekend with sfc wind speeds in general remaining below 10kt.

With less cloud cover and fewer showers, temperatures will climb
back into the low 90s area-wide each afternoon. Heat indices are
expected to remain above seasonal climo, with max values in the
100 to 103 degrees range, just below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Moving into the new week, an expansive mid-level ridge will stretch
across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeastern CONUS as the
lingering trough drifts into the Atlantic. This ridge will be the
primary synoptic influence in the weather pattern during the early
to middle portion of the week as it gradually shifts eastward and
centers over South Florida. At the surface, as high pressure
strengthens to the north, east-northeasterly wind flow will
gradually increase early next week due a tight pressure gradient
from a stalled frontal boundary over the Florida Keys and the high
pressure to the north. Mid-level drier air will work in from the
north bringing the PWAT values down to 1.5-1.8" over the region on
Monday and Tuesday. While this will help to reduce shower and
thunderstorm chances each day, the stalled frontal boundary to the
south will keep a sufficient supply of low-level moisture in the
southern half of the Peninsula. With the assistance of sea breezes
and outflow boundaries, this will support daily scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the region, with the best chance
along, and to the south of, Alligator Alley.

Temperatures will be just above seasonal normals with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and mid-90s in far SW FL.
While the heat indices will likely reach the triple digits, the
drier air should provide a relief from heat advisories due to dew
points dropping into the low to mid 70s, especially in the first
half of the week.

Looking further into the week, confidence continues to run low and
uncertainty rises as guidance still remains in disagreement in
regards to a potential tropical disturbance. Models vary about the
future of a Central American Gyre, which may consolidate into a more
defined area of low pressure over NW Caribbean and southern GOMEX.
The latest guidance remains in disagreement in its intensity and
placement of this feature during this time frame as there is
currently no area of low pressure to track. Until an area of low
pressure forms, guidance will remain poor in resolving this
potential disturbance until something trackable actually develops.
As of 2AM, The National Hurricane Center currently gives a 60
percent chance of development over the next 7 days, with early next
week the potential time. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses. Regardless, there is indication of a wet latter
half of the week as moisture will try to advect back into the
region, which will increase daily showers and thunderstorm
chances.|

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Light and variable wind will become more onshore as late morning
into the afternoon. A few storms this the afternoon and early
evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds,
but mainly VFR conditions should prevail today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Generally light winds continue today and Sunday with a decaying
frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and
thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to
filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Can`t rule out a few
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Brief periods of rough
seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Minor to moderate coastal flooding continues during periods of high
tide today. These elevated tides will continue to affect all coastal
areas of South Florida late this afternoon. A coastal flood advisory
remains in effect. Conditions should begin to improve on Sunday as
northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but we could
still see some minor coastal flooding during high tide.
Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm
Beaches during the next couple of days.

NAPLES HIGH TIDE TIMES...3:58 PM this afternoon

LAKE WORTH HIGH TIDE TIMES...11:15 AM today

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  76  90  77 /  40  20  30  20
West Kendall     92  74  92  75 /  50  20  30  20
Opa-Locka        91  76  92  77 /  40  20  30  20
Homestead        90  76  90  76 /  40  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  76  90  78 /  30  20  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  76  90  78 /  30  20  20  20
Pembroke Pines   92  76  93  78 /  40  20  20  20
West Palm Beach  90  76  90  77 /  30  10  20  30
Boca Raton       90  76  91  78 /  30  20  20  30
Naples           92  75  91  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ069-
     075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...RAG