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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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912 FXUS62 KMFL 221634 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1234 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Strong mid level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this afternoon while a weakness in this ridge remains in place on the eastern side in the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic extends back towards South Florida as a weakening area of low pressure pushes into Southeastern Georgia. With lack of any synoptic scale forcing, shower and thunderstorm development will be sea breeze driven throughout the rest of today. Deep tropical moisture continues to filter into the region as the latest forecast soundings show PWAT values rising up to 2.1 to 2.3 inches later this afternoon. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop this afternoon and into this evening. With a weak steering flow in place, storm motion will be slow this afternoon. The general east to southeasterly wind flow will allow for the east coast sea breeze to push further inland, shifting the focus of convection over to the interior and west as the afternoon progresses into the evening hours. Enough instability remains in place with diurnal heating to support a strong thunderstorm or two mainly over the interior sections this afternoon into the evening containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. While most of the convection will dissipate heading into the late evening hours over land, additional shower and thunderstorm development will be possible over the local waters as well as the as the east coast overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 across the east coast metro areas. Heading into Sunday, mid level ridging across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast will slowly start to break down as an amplifying mid level trough dives down across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This will cause the surface high in the western Atlantic to retreat further to the east which will weaken the east to southeasterly wind flow across the region even further. With deep tropical moisture still in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again along the sea breezes as they push inland. Storm motion will once again be slow due to the weak steering flow, however, convection will slowly try to push towards the interior and west during the afternoon and evening hours. With a bit more instability in place as well as the addition of some mid to upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break down, some strong thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours with the highest chances remaining over the interior sections. High temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 On Monday, a more notable shift in the weather pattern is expected as the surface flow is to become more southerly. This is due to the waning influence of a surface high over the western Atlantic. The shift in the surface flow will concentrate convection primarily across inland areas, particularly around the lake and other inland locations, where boundary collisions will be more frequent. During this period, deeper tropical moisture (PWATs exceeding 2 inches) from the ongoing Central American Gyre (C.A.G.) will continue to move into South Florida, sustaining elevated rain chances each afternoon. It is important to note that the NBMs PoPs are too high, so a reduction has been implemented. As we progress into mid to late week, mid-level troughing will become established over the eastern United States, accompanied by a surface frontal boundary extending into the southeastern United States. In response, surface winds will veer southwesterly across South Florida. This will promote the inland progression of the Gulf sea breeze while confining the Atlantic sea breeze to the East Coast. As a result, the highest concentration of convection is expected along the East Coast metro areas from Tuesday through late week. With PWATs ranging between 1.8 and 2.2 inches and light 500mb flow in place, localized flooding remains a concern, particularly in urban areas that experienced significant rainfall last week. The south to southwest flow will support seasonal temperatures throughout the forecast period with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices exceeding 100. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to push towards the interior and west as the afternoon progresses. ESE winds around 10 to 15 kts will gradually diminish heading into the evening hours. At KAPF, winds will become SW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Periods of MVFR or IFR are possible at KAPF this afternoon as showers and storms move near and over the terminal. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through the rest of the weekend. These winds will gradually veer and become more southerly heading into the early and middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through this evening. The risk of rip currents could remain elevated into early next week as onshore flow remains in place. Rip current risks will diminsh for all South Florida beaches heading into the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 89 79 89 / 40 60 40 60 West Kendall 77 90 76 90 / 40 60 30 60 Opa-Locka 79 90 78 91 / 40 60 40 60 Homestead 78 88 78 89 / 50 60 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 88 79 88 / 40 60 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 88 78 89 / 40 60 30 60 Pembroke Pines 80 91 79 92 / 40 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 78 88 77 90 / 40 60 30 60 Boca Raton 79 88 78 90 / 40 50 30 60 Naples 76 90 76 90 / 40 70 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...CWC