Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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512 FXUS62 KMFL 180755 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Models show the remnants of a mid level shortwave trough departing the region, and followed by incoming drier air from the west Atlantic. Meanwhile, high pressure establishes over the SE CONUS and expanding into northern Florida, bringing moderate easterlies across SoFlo, possibly gusty at times along the east coast. Latest model PWATs continue to drop to near 1 inch Tuesday morning, with relatively dry conditions prevailing. Then the synoptic setup begin to quickly modify as another shortwave trough moves along the easterly flow, mainly across the southern half of the CWA. This will result in a modest increase in POPs this afternoon, with best chances around Palm Beach and northern Broward where 40-45 percent coverage is expected. For Wednesday, models begin pushing the aforementioned high further north as a sfc trough approaches the SE US coast from the west Atlantic. This brings a further enhancement of moisture advection over SoFlo, with POPs back in the 50-60 percent range by the afternoon hours. Thus, scattered to numerous showers and storms should move across the area with some possible strong cells. Temperatures remain at or higher than normals, with low 90s around the Atlantic coast, and in the mid 90s over interior and Gulf coast areas. Heat index values should reach the low 100s each day, but locally higher values are possible. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs, with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in areas recently impacted. With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which will keep to the low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Mainly VFR prevails today, but some passing showers are possible in the early afternoon hours over the Atlantic terminals. Will keep no restrictions in the TAFs for now with VCSH after 18Z. Easterly winds remain breezy with gusts in the 25-30kt range this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Expect moderate to breezy easterly winds to prevail through mid week, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine waters through this morning, then continuing for the Atlantic waters until at least Wednesday morning. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Increasing easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. Surf should also increase, possibly in the 3-4 feet range today and Wednesday over the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 87 79 / 40 40 50 50 West Kendall 89 77 88 77 / 40 40 50 50 Opa-Locka 90 79 89 78 / 40 40 50 50 Homestead 88 79 87 79 / 30 40 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 87 79 86 79 / 40 40 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 88 79 87 79 / 40 40 50 50 Pembroke Pines 91 79 89 79 / 40 40 50 50 West Palm Beach 89 77 88 77 / 50 40 60 50 Boca Raton 89 78 88 78 / 40 40 60 50 Naples 94 77 91 76 / 30 10 60 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...17 LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...17