832
FXUS62 KMFL 241155
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
755 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mid-lvl ridging will remain positioned over the area for one more
day maintaining warm temperatures aloft, a layer of mid-lvl dry
air, and synoptic subsidence over South Florida. Rain chances will
be limited to isolated-scattered coastal convergence showers over
the east coast (the best set-up for this looks to be this AM over
Palm Beach county), and scattered thunderstorms over SW Florida
this afternoon as the synoptic easterly flow encounters the nearly
pinned Gulf breeze. Seasonably warm temperatures can be expected
with highs in the low 90s near the east coast and mid 90s over
Interior and SW Florida.

We will begin to see the first fringe impacts from PTC 9 over SFL
tonight into Wednesday as deep tropical moisture begins to advect
northward, as evidenced by PWATs increasing over 2.2 inches by
Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances will increase from north to
south tonight (although likely confined to the waters and coastal
regions), with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected during the day on Wednesday. Additionally southeasterly
winds will become increasingly breezy with gusts 25 to 30mph
Wednesday afternoon. However the circulation of the developing
system should remain far enough to our east that a wash-out does
not look likely, and the most significant impacts from the system
likely will likely hold off until the long-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

As we move into the latter portion of the week, Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine (PTC9) will continue to develop and strengthen as it
moves further into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and fuels off the warm
waters. As this occurs, deep tropical moisture will push into the
region which will increase the likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms late Wednesday through Friday and bring the
potential for flooding rains further into the region. Moderate
confidence continues for the potential for heavy rainfall and some
flooding concerns during this time frame. The latest WPC
excessive rainfall outlooks keeps a majority of South FL as a
marginal risk (Level 1 out of 4) through Friday, and a slight
risk (Level 2 out of 4) for the west coast on Thursday. As far as
rainfall amounts are concerned, uncertainty still remains and will
depend on the exact track of the system. If the storm were to
track further to the east, this would increase the rainfall totals
across the region. However, a track further to the west would
decrease these totals. In general, rainfall amounts from late Wednesday
through Friday evening look to range from 2 to 4 inches with
locally higher amounts, especially across the Gulf coast region
(5"+). This will continue to be monitored with the days ahead. As
PTC9 progresses, forecasts indicate that it may bring the
potential for tropical storm force winds to the coastal Collier
and Mainland Monroe counties. There is a Tropical Storm Watch in
effect for the for those portions of South FL with possible
sustained winds 30-40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. While not as
strong winds to be felt throughout the interior and SE FL,
conditions will remain windy regionwide bringing the potential for
wind advisories, likely Thursday, but this will depend on
strengthening and track taken. Updates will be made as time
requires. With the increased cloud cover for the latter half of
the week, high temperatures will trend cooler with highs keeping
to the mid to upper 80s.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest guidance suite is
hinting at mid-level ridge building over the area on Saturday and
Sunday. At the surface, southwesterly wind flow will help to keep
deep layer moisture advection in place as the moisture tail from
what is left of PTC 9 could remain parked over the region. With an
abundance of moisture across the region, this could keep the
enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms in place during this
time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of the forecast as
well as it will be dependent on exactly where this moisture tail
sets up. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.
With southwesterly wind flow in place, high temperatures will
generally range from the upper 80s across Southwest Florida to the
lower 90s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 753 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A band of showers near PBI could produce bouts of sub-VFR and
gusty winds. Other terminals should continue in a lull though a
band may eventually move in later in the period from the south.
Overnight, easterly wind flow will increase and rain chances will
steadily climb heading into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Easterly winds will become fresh over the waters today as the
gradient strengthens to the north of PTC 9 in the NW Caribbean.
Winds and seas will then turn hazardous on Wednesday as the
disturbance intensifies and lifts northward into the SE GOM, with
tropical storm conditions possible over the Gulf waters and Gale
conditions possible on the Atlantic waters on Thursday. The
chances of showers and thunderstorms will also increase Wednesday
into the late-week period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Minor coastal flooding will remain possible over the east coast
today but should generally be spotty as astronomical tides
decrease. Moderate to major coastal flooding can be expected over
the Gulf coast late Wednesday into Thursday as PTC 9 strengthens
and tracks through the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Strengthening onshore flow will result in an extended period of
high rip current risk over the east coast (likely through the
workweek), with potentially hazardous surf developing over the
Palm Beaches in the mid-week period. Additionally hazardous beach
conditions look likely over the Gulf coast beaches starting
Thursday as surf increases in association with PTC9.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  89  79 /  30  60  80  90
West Kendall     92  78  89  79 /  40  60  80  90
Opa-Locka        92  80  90  79 /  30  60  80  90
Homestead        90  80  88  79 /  40  60  80  90
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  88  79 /  30  60  80  90
N Ft Lauderdale  90  80  89  79 /  30  60  80  80
Pembroke Pines   92  80  90  79 /  30  60  80  80
West Palm Beach  90  79  89  79 /  30  50  80  80
Boca Raton       90  79  90  79 /  40  50  80  80
Naples           94  79  90  78 /  40  30  80  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Storm Surge Watch for FLZ069-075.

     Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ069-075.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...RAG