Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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471 FXUS62 KMFL 150658 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 258 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A weak frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida this morning while a mid-level trough sits across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. These features have maintained southwesterly surface flow across South Florida and a ribbon of moisture draped from east to west across the area - with highest amounts near the far southern peninsula. This moisture will linger through the day today leading to another afternoon and evening of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will likely be lower than Friday as overall moisture will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon as surface high pressure begins to build. The surface ridge should nudge the moisture envelope westward leading to slightly drier conditions on Sunday, although still wet enough to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day with greatest chances during the afternoon and evening with peak daytime heating. Easterly flow should return to the area by Sunday afternoon, leading to a greater coverage of convection across interior and Southwest Florida. The sun could make a few appearances throughout the weekend, although with abundant moisture still hanging around, this weekend will likely remain mostly cloudy to overcast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 To start the new work week, the aforementioned surface high will continue to build across south Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will bring us back into a more typical summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze activity. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will favor interior and southwest areas as the east coast sea breezes develop early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. But still can`t rule out a few strong storms affecting any of the east coast metro areas at times. For now, keeping POPs around 50% for this time period. Highs temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits towards the middle to end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the overnight hours. Light winds overnight will increase out of the SW by the middle of Saturday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again Saturday afternoon and could bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals especially later in the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity should gradually diminsh as Saturday evening progresses. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A gentle to moderate southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters today. As high pressure builds, they will gradually shift to a northeasterly direction on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible today and winds and waves may be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 79 89 79 / 60 20 30 20 West Kendall 85 75 90 77 / 50 20 30 10 Opa-Locka 85 78 90 79 / 60 20 30 20 Homestead 86 78 88 79 / 50 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 85 79 87 80 / 50 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 85 79 88 79 / 60 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 85 79 91 80 / 60 20 30 20 West Palm Beach 85 77 88 78 / 60 20 30 20 Boca Raton 85 78 88 79 / 60 20 30 20 Naples 85 77 91 76 / 70 40 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ072-074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...CWC