744
FXUS62 KMFL 161644
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1244 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Ridging begins to build over the southeastern US today as a
surface high expands across the eastern seaboard towards Florida.
As a result, a breezy easterly wind regime sets up across our
region today. While much of the moisture plume has shifted
westward over the Gulf of Mexico at this point, PWAT values over
our area remain somewhat elevated (in the range of 1.9-2.1, which
is climatologically high for this time of year). This could lead
to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the
sea breeze boundaries later today but chances remain pretty
limited by the gradual intrusion of dry air at the lower levels
(PoPs 20-30%). Coverage will be maximized across interior and
southwest Florida.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday as ridging
and the surface high expand and strengthen. This will help to
increase the pressure gradient across South Florida allowing for
easterly winds to increase bring breezy conditions to the region
heading into the afternoon hours. This will also usher in some drier
air in the mid levels which will cause the PWAT values to fall to
more climatological values. Isolated to scattered showers could
still pop up along the sea breeze boundaries during the early
afternoon with coverage favored over the interior and southwest FL.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the upper 80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

To wrap up the first half of the week, models continue to indicate a
surface high pressure building across the FL Peninsula from the
west Atlantic and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the normal
summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze convection and
activity. The prevailing easterly wind direction should favor
better chances for showers and thunderstorms over the interior &
Gulf Coast as the east coast sea breezes should start early in the
afternoon and quickly push inland. However, scattered showers and
a few strong storms may still affect some of the east coast metro
areas, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weak start of
the sea breeze circulations. However, lower PWATs (~1.5"), and
forecast QPF, are indicating the potential for light showers
ahead.

As we move into the latter half of the week, disagreement in the
deterministic and ensembles leave minor confidence in the long
term forecast across South FL. The latest run of the Euro and GFS
ensembles indicate the potential for a shortwave flow, with a
surface low, approach from the Bahamas. However, model guidance
continues to vary as to where the impact "bullseye" hits in
Florida/southeastern US, but one agreement - there will be an
increase in moisture approach from the southeast (PWATS >2.0") as
we reach the late week and weekend. Details to be determined as we
move into the week.

Throughout the week as a whole, high temperatures are expected to
rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper
90s or even triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected for the period with breezy
easterly winds prevailing. A few isolated showers and storms could
develop this afternoon, however, they should remain away from the
terminals as they push towards the interior. The exception to this
will be at KAPF, where showers and thunderstorms may develop near
the terminal heading into the mid to late afternoon hours.Light
and variable winds again overnight before a return to more
moderate easterly flow Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters today will
become moderate to fresh heading into the early portion of the week.
Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the
middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous
marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and
Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally
higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The rip current risk across the Atlantic coast beaches will
gradually increase for the early to middle portion of the week as
onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  88  79  88 /  20  30  30  50
West Kendall     77  89  77  89 /  10  40  30  50
Opa-Locka        78  89  79  89 /  10  30  30  50
Homestead        79  88  79  88 /  10  40  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  86  80  87 /  20  30  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  50
Pembroke Pines   80  90  80  90 /  10  30  20  50
West Palm Beach  78  88  78  88 /  10  20  30  50
Boca Raton       79  88  79  88 /  10  20  30  50
Naples           77  91  77  92 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV