Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
744 FXUS62 KMFL 161644 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1244 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Ridging begins to build over the southeastern US today as a surface high expands across the eastern seaboard towards Florida. As a result, a breezy easterly wind regime sets up across our region today. While much of the moisture plume has shifted westward over the Gulf of Mexico at this point, PWAT values over our area remain somewhat elevated (in the range of 1.9-2.1, which is climatologically high for this time of year). This could lead to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze boundaries later today but chances remain pretty limited by the gradual intrusion of dry air at the lower levels (PoPs 20-30%). Coverage will be maximized across interior and southwest Florida. The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday as ridging and the surface high expand and strengthen. This will help to increase the pressure gradient across South Florida allowing for easterly winds to increase bring breezy conditions to the region heading into the afternoon hours. This will also usher in some drier air in the mid levels which will cause the PWAT values to fall to more climatological values. Isolated to scattered showers could still pop up along the sea breeze boundaries during the early afternoon with coverage favored over the interior and southwest FL. Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the upper 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 To wrap up the first half of the week, models continue to indicate a surface high pressure building across the FL Peninsula from the west Atlantic and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the normal summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze convection and activity. The prevailing easterly wind direction should favor better chances for showers and thunderstorms over the interior & Gulf Coast as the east coast sea breezes should start early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. However, scattered showers and a few strong storms may still affect some of the east coast metro areas, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weak start of the sea breeze circulations. However, lower PWATs (~1.5"), and forecast QPF, are indicating the potential for light showers ahead. As we move into the latter half of the week, disagreement in the deterministic and ensembles leave minor confidence in the long term forecast across South FL. The latest run of the Euro and GFS ensembles indicate the potential for a shortwave flow, with a surface low, approach from the Bahamas. However, model guidance continues to vary as to where the impact "bullseye" hits in Florida/southeastern US, but one agreement - there will be an increase in moisture approach from the southeast (PWATS >2.0") as we reach the late week and weekend. Details to be determined as we move into the week. Throughout the week as a whole, high temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Generally VFR conditions expected for the period with breezy easterly winds prevailing. A few isolated showers and storms could develop this afternoon, however, they should remain away from the terminals as they push towards the interior. The exception to this will be at KAPF, where showers and thunderstorms may develop near the terminal heading into the mid to late afternoon hours.Light and variable winds again overnight before a return to more moderate easterly flow Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters today will become moderate to fresh heading into the early portion of the week. Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The rip current risk across the Atlantic coast beaches will gradually increase for the early to middle portion of the week as onshore flow increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 88 79 88 / 20 30 30 50 West Kendall 77 89 77 89 / 10 40 30 50 Opa-Locka 78 89 79 89 / 10 30 30 50 Homestead 79 88 79 88 / 10 40 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 86 80 87 / 20 30 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 50 Pembroke Pines 80 90 80 90 / 10 30 20 50 West Palm Beach 78 88 78 88 / 10 20 30 50 Boca Raton 79 88 79 88 / 10 20 30 50 Naples 77 91 77 92 / 30 50 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...ATV