Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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409 FXUS62 KMFL 152256 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 656 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 652 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Precipitation trends over land have diminished with some activity still continuing in the Gulf. Cancelled the Flood Watch a bit early since the east coast metro is looking to remain generally dry for the rest of the evening. No major changes other than to adjust the hourly grids to account for observed temperature and dewpoint trends. Have a wonderful Saturday evening! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 It`s a very un-June like day across South FL today, with cooler conditions and light stratiform rain falling over the southern half of the area due to a weak low/surface trough over the eastern Gulf. 12Z sounding and ACARS data shows plenty of dry air up through about 700 mb and then saturated at the mid and upper levels. Forecast soundings show the low levels trying to moisten up this afternoon south of Alligator Alley, but there`s plenty of uncertainty on how well that will occur. Not enough confidence at this point to eliminate the remaining Flood Watch over the Broward/Miami-Dade metro, especially with some convection trying to drift northward from the FL Straits, but if the fairly stable conditions hold it`s likely the Watch will be cancelled early. Mainly dry conditions overnight with most shower activity remaining over the Atlantic and Gulf waters. It`ll be another mild evening across the metro areas with lows in the upper 70s to around 80, but low to mid 70s over interior South FL. On Sunday the mid/upper level high moves over the southeast US, which will help bring some drier air into the region. While there will still be plenty of cloud cover, expect some more peaks of sun during the day and overall lower PoPs, with the best chances for scattered showers and storms being over the interior and SW FL with the E/NE flow. Much warmer temps expected, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Models show fair agreement in pushing a mid level trough/low complex northeastward across the E CONUS, and into the west Atlantic to start the long term. This will result in a gradual shift of winds over SoFlo to a more easterly/northeasterly, which will signal a return to a more closer-to-normal weather pattern for this time of the year. For the first half of the work week, model solutions suggest a sfc high pressure building across the peninsula from the west Atlantic and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the aforementioned more normal summertime weather regime of afternoon seabreeze activity. The prevailing easterly wind direction should favor better chances for showers and thunderstorms over interior areas as the east coast seabreezes should early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. However, a few strong storms could still affect some of the east coast metro areas, especially on days with a weak start of the sea breeze circulations. Highs temperatures are expected to warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits towards the middle and latter portions of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Generally VFR with a mid to upper level cloud deck remaining. Wind will lighten and become variable overnight before becoming easterly on Sunday. Morning Atlantic showers and storms cannot be ruled out and they should transition inland in the afternoon before pushing into SWFL and the Gulf waters by the evening. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for sub-VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A gentle to moderate south to southwest flow early today will become north to northeasterly late today as mid/upper level high pressure starts to build in to our north. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas will be generally 2 ft or less this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents is possible beginning Sunday along the east coast beaches as onshore flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 88 80 88 / 20 30 20 50 West Kendall 75 89 77 89 / 20 30 20 40 Opa-Locka 77 89 79 89 / 20 30 20 40 Homestead 77 88 79 88 / 20 30 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 87 80 87 / 20 40 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 78 88 80 87 / 20 40 20 40 Pembroke Pines 79 91 80 90 / 20 40 20 40 West Palm Beach 77 88 78 88 / 20 40 20 40 Boca Raton 77 89 79 88 / 20 40 30 40 Naples 77 91 77 92 / 30 50 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...RAG