117
FXUS62 KMFL 231150
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
750 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

To begin the week, the mid-level ridge will continue to stretch
across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeastern CONUS, before
settling in over the Southeast. The combination of the drier air and
high pressure aloft will bring shower and thunderstorm chances below
climatological norms again today, with PWATs keeping to 1.5-1.8". At
the surface, as high pressure strengthens to the north, easterly
flow will gradually increase today as the pressure gradient tightens
with the stalled frontal boundary sitting to our south. Morning
coastal showers will transition inland and to the west through the
afternoon and evening. Remnant showers will linger over the local
waters overnight. On Tuesday, it will likely be the driest day of
the week ahead. With the moderate easterly flow, and lingering
surface boundary across the Florida Straits, much of the
precipitation will keep to the south of Alligator Alley. The chance
for PoPs will remain low, capping at 30-40%, with only a slight
chance around Lake Okeechobee.

Temperatures will be trending warm, just above seasonal normals,
with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and mid-90s in
far SW FL. While the heat indices will likely reach the triple
digits, the drier air should provide a relief from heat advisories
keeping dew points in the low to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Models begin the long term with a large area of disturbed weather
over the NW Caribbean pushing a plume of deep moisture into the
area, with the mid level ridge dominating most of the SE CONUS
weakening and migrating further east. POPs/Wx coverage jumps into
the 70-80 percent range on Wednesday with model PWATs well above
seasonal normals. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected,
with best chances over the west coast of SoFlo.

Ensembles and global model solutions are now falling in better
agreement regarding potential for tropical development out of the
aforementioned area of disturbed weather, with a strengthening low
bringing tightening pressure gradients across the region through the
rest of the work week. This will result in breezy and gusty periods
as the low pushes northward across the central/eastern GOMEX. As sfc
winds veer to a more southerly flow, moisture advection continues
across SoFlo with POPs into the 80-90 percent range Thursday and
Friday. However, the forecast scenario remains highly uncertain as
adjustments will be required depending on which solution
materializes.

Latest WPC outlooks show much of the region under a Marginal risk
for excessive rain on Days 2-4. Therefore, regardless of the final
outcome, there is a high confidence level that flood-related hazards
can be expected for much of SoFlo in the Wed-Fri timeframe. For the
weekend weather, the scenario remains highly uncertain, with long
range models still showing significant divergence in potential
solutions.

The increasing cloud cover and rain activity should bring down temps
across the area, with afternoon highs likely remaining in the mid to
upper 80s, and depending on timing and coverage of rainfall, some
locations may end up cooler than that. Overnight lows will generally
be in the mid to upper 70s through the end of the work week and into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Morning Atlantic showers could impact the east coast terminals
with brief bouts of sub-VFR conditions this morning. Easterly wind
flow will pick up except for APF where the Gulf sea breeze will
turn things westerly. Afternoon shower and storm activity should
be focused more inland and then west by the evening. Convection
should diminish late evening into the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Generally light winds will veer easterly and strengthen early this
week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. Showers
and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues
to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Brief periods
of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms. Eyes will turn to potential tropical development in the
northwestern Caribbean mid to late this week which may lead to
deteriorating conditions across the local waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as
northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor
coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low-
lying coastal areas. The Coastal Flood Statement will remain in
effect through Monday evening. Additionally, a moderate risk of
rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches. However, beginning
Tuesday, a high risk of rip currents is likely for the South
Florida Atlantic Coast beaches.

High Tide Tides...
* Virginia Key - 2:09 PM Mon, 2:18 AM Tues
* South Port Everglades - 1:28 PM Mon, 1:39 AM Tues
* Lake Worth Pier - 1:14 PM Mon, 1:24 AM Tues
* Naples Bay, North - 4:16 AM Mon, 7:21 PM Mon
* Flamingo Visitors Center - 7:12 AM Mon, 9:02 PM Mon

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  90  80 /  20  20  40  50
West Kendall     92  78  91  78 /  20  20  40  60
Opa-Locka        92  79  91  79 /  20  20  40  50
Homestead        90  79  90  80 /  10  20  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  89  79 /  20  20  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  90  79  90  80 /  20  20  30  40
Pembroke Pines   93  80  92  80 /  20  20  40  40
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  79 /  30  20  30  30
Boca Raton       91  79  91  79 /  30  20  30  40
Naples           92  77  93  78 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAG