Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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039 FXUS62 KMFL 211358 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 958 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 943 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Plenty of moisture remains in place this morning across South Florida as PWAT values from the KMFL 12Z sounding came in at 2.09 inches. There is a pocket drier air that is trying to push in from the northeast and that can been seen really well on water vapor satellite imagery this morning. This drier air will help to limit convection chances heading into this afternoon and this evening. While there will still be enough lower level moisture in place to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breezes, the chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain limited due to the drier air pushing into the mid levels. With the east to southeasterly wind flow in place, the highest chances of thunderstorm development will remain over the interior and west coast where sea breeze boundaries will interact with each other as they push inland. High temperatures this afternoon will rise to around 90 along the east coast, and into the lower to mid 90s across Southwest Florida. Heat index values will be even higher and they will generally range between 100 and 105 across most areas this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Models bring a weak sfc trough closer to the SE Atl coast today, which drags a large area of enhanced moisture into the region. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast shows a 50 percent chance of cyclone development in the next couple of days. Therefore, the current forecast philosophy for the short term may need adjustments as the situation evolves. For now, the forecast calls for the bulk of the moisture advection to remain further north of SoFlo this afternoon. Meanwhile, GFS/EURO and ensembles show good agreement in showing a pocket of drier air wrapping around the western edge of the trough, and advecting it into the area. This synoptic setup should result in lowering POPs, with most locations in the 30-40 percent range. The drier air will also help in inhibiting vertical development of thunderstorms. As the trough moves closer, the ridge over the SE CONUS flattens some, with veering of winds across SoFlo bringing a more SE flow this afternoon. Thus, expect the best chances for scattered showers and storms around the Lake region, especially with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. For Saturday, the overall weather pattern continues but with additional moisture filtering from the south. Latest model soundings suggest PWATs increasing to 2.0-2.5 inches, which will support scattered showers across much of SoFlo in the afternoon. The prevailing ESE wind direction will again place best chances of rain/storms over the Lake region and Gulf coast locations. However, some initial convection may develop around the east coast metro areas in the morning hours. Then in the afternoon, the sea breeze boundaries will likely become foci for deeper convection. Temperatures today and Saturday will warm up into the low 90s, with heat index values in the low 100s, but not expected to reach advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Long range models show increasing rain chances for much of the long term. A persisting southerly component in the low level flow will keep deeper moisture moving across SoFlo, with PWATs of 2 inches or higher. POPs up to 60 percent each afternoon along with sea breezes will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the dominant ridge centered around the SE CONUS will weaken due to the influence of a trough/low complex moving over the NE CONUS early in the week. This will result in weakening pressure gradients and lighter sfc winds over SoFlo below 10 mph. Therefore, any locations affected by slow-moving heavy downpours could experience localized flooding. With the lack of overall steering flow, outflow boundaries and the sea breeze circulations will drive the deeper convection. Thus, concerns about flooding will include any of the already hard-hit metro areas during the latest round heavy rains. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal values with afternoon maximums in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values will remain in the low 100s with prevailing warm and muggy conditions each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 732 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the ESE by the late morning hours. Isolated to scattered showers may pass near the east coast terminals during the late morning and early afternoon hours, however, they should push towards the interior later this afternoon. At KAPF, winds will shift to the WSW as a Gulf breeze develops this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are possible near KAPF as well this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Weakening E/SE winds will allow for seas to subside and remain below SCA levels during the next several days. However, increasing thunderstorm activity will result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds, especially with the strongest storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Easterly to southeasterly winds along the Atlantic coast will keep the high risk of rip currents for all beaches today and Saturday. Winds will then relax enough for the risk level to drop to moderate levels from Sunday into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 90 80 / 20 40 50 40 West Kendall 91 79 91 77 / 20 40 50 40 Opa-Locka 91 80 91 79 / 20 40 50 40 Homestead 89 80 89 79 / 20 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 88 80 / 20 40 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 89 80 / 20 40 60 40 Pembroke Pines 92 81 92 80 / 20 40 50 40 West Palm Beach 91 79 90 78 / 20 30 60 40 Boca Raton 91 80 90 80 / 20 40 60 40 Naples 92 78 92 77 / 40 50 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM....AR AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC