Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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858 FXUS62 KMFL 151710 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 It`s a very un-June like day across South FL today, with cooler conditions and light stratiform rain falling over the southern half of the area due to a weak low/surface trough over the eastern Gulf. 12Z sounding and ACARS data shows plenty of dry air up through about 700 mb and then saturated at the mid and upper levels. Forecast soundings show the low levels trying to moisten up this afternoon south of Alligator Alley, but there`s plenty of uncertainty on how well that will occur. Not enough confidence at this point to eliminate the remaining Flood Watch over the Broward/Miami-Dade metro, especially with some convection trying to drift northward from the FL Straits, but if the fairly stable conditions hold it`s likely the Watch will be cancelled early. Mainly dry conditions overnight with most shower activity remaining over the Atlantic and Gulf waters. It`ll be another mild evening across the metro areas with lows in the upper 70s to around 80, but low to mid 70s over interior South FL. On Sunday the mid/upper level high moves over the southeast US, which will help bring some drier air into the region. While there will still be plenty of cloud cover, expect some more peaks of sun during the day and overall lower PoPs, with the best chances for scattered showers and storms being over the interior and SW FL with the E/NE flow. Much warmer temps expected, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 To start the new work week, the aforementioned surface high will continue to build across south Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will bring us back into a more typical summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze activity. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will favor interior and southwest areas as the east coast sea breezes develop early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. But still can`t rule out a few strong storms affecting any of the east coast metro areas at times. For now, keeping POPs around 50% for this time period. Highs temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits towards the middle to end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected today with BKN to OVC mid level clouds. Light rain across the area through early this evening should have little aviation impact. Light westerly winds 5-10 kts will become light and variable overnight and then become easterly 5-10 kts on Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A gentle to moderate south to southwest flow early today will become north to northeasterly late today as mid/upper level high pressure starts to build in to our north. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas will be generally 2 ft or less this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents is possible beginning Sunday along the east coast beaches as onshore flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 88 79 88 / 30 30 20 30 West Kendall 75 89 77 90 / 30 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 77 89 79 90 / 30 30 20 30 Homestead 77 88 79 88 / 30 30 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 87 80 87 / 30 40 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 88 79 88 / 30 40 20 30 Pembroke Pines 79 91 80 90 / 30 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 77 88 78 88 / 30 40 20 40 Boca Raton 77 89 79 88 / 30 40 20 40 Naples 77 91 76 93 / 40 50 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ072-074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...CMF