774
FXUS62 KMFL 142306
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
706 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Unsettled conditions persist across the northern half of the CWA
as a weak boundary lingers across north-central Florida. Westerly
surface flow has the east coast sea breeze pinned which allowed
convection to continue to develop right along the immediate
coastline. As we head closer to sunset and begin to lose the
daytime heating, and cloud cover increased, expect this activity
to begin winding down over the next hour or so. With abundant low
level moisture and very weak flow expected overnight, very patchy
fog development is possible across portions of South Florida into
the early morning hours. With most of the area cooled down, the
heat products have been allowed to expire. &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A trough aloft is passing through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
across the peninsula of Florida today into tonight. A stalled
boundary over northern Florida and the southeastern United States
sits on the edge of high pressure centered over the northeastern
United States. South Florida remains in a very warm, moist airmass
but behind the passing trough could come a window of slightly drier
air which could allow rain chances to return closer to
climatological norms for this time of year on Sunday afternoon. The
westerly flow pattern will still favor the advancement of the Gulf
sea breeze and pin the Atlantic sea breeze which will allow the peak
convective focus to move from inland in the early afternoon to the
east coast metro for the late afternoon and evening. Slow-moving
storms could again produce an excessive rainfall risk focused along
the east coast metro for Sunday.

Temperatures on Sunday will again reach the lower 90s with heat
index values ranging from 105 to 111. Heat Advisories may again be
necessary on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Models depict a mid level trough/low complex dominating the SE CONUS
to start the long term. Ridging further to the north will provide
enough blocking to keep the low lingering in place through the first
half of the week. Although its possible that this low could acquire
tropical characteristics while moving over the west Atlantic, models
suggest it should migrate towards the NE eventually. Pressure
gradients between the trough/low and the Atlantic high centered
further east will remain very weak, which will translate in
prevailing light to variable sfc winds over the region, including
SoFlo. Flow aloft will remain generally from the SW or W at times.

Modest moisture advection and potential for some drier mid level air
to filter into SoFlo from the GOMEX early next week may lower PWATs,
but not enough to bring POPs down below 50 percent each afternoon.
However, enough uncertainty remains in the possible synoptic
scenario to expect some revisions to the forecast philosophy.

If the west flow aloft continues, it should favor a rain pattern
with chances over interior and eastern metro areas of SoFlo. Deeper
convection will likely be driven by sea breeze and outflow boundary
interactions during the afternoon hours. Max POPs will be kept at or
slightly above normals, mainly in the 50-60% range each day. In
terms of temps, a little cooler afternoon highs are likely as the
overall trend is to remain near seasonal normals (upper 80s-low
90s). However, peak heat indices will likely remain in the low
triple digits, but should remain just below heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Shower & storm activity is winding down this afternoon and
generally moving from west to east over the local waters.
Some morning fog is possible, generally inland. Sea breeze
activity could kick off again late morning into the afternoon
along the east coast terminals tomorrow leading to IFR/LIFR
conditions at some sites where TEMPOs may be needed. Not quite
enough confidence for this yet as coverage of showers and storms
should be lighter tomorrow as drier air moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Light winds will prevail through the weekend, with winds becoming
more westerly on Sunday. Seas across both the Atlantic and Gulf
waters will generally be at 2 feet or less today, with seas in the
Atlantic waters potentially increasing Sunday into early next
week as low pressure develops off the southeastern United States
and northerly swell builds in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day and could lead to locally higher winds
and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Lingering northerly swell will result in a moderate risk of rip
currents along Palm Beaches over the next several days. The rip risk
may increase early next week over the Atlantic beaches as higher
amplitude northerly swell may move in.

From Sunday into early portions of next week, there will be the
potential for minor coastal flooding around high tide due to
astronomically higher tides. A Coastal Flood Statement is in
effect through at least Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  92  78  92 /  40  70  30  60
West Kendall     76  92  76  93 /  40  70  20  60
Opa-Locka        77  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  60
Homestead        77  92  77  91 /  40  60  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  77  91  78  90 /  40  70  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  92  78  92 /  40  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   78  94  78  94 /  40  70  30  60
West Palm Beach  77  92  77  92 /  40  60  30  50
Boca Raton       77  93  77  93 /  40  70  30  50
Naples           79  90  78  90 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto