621
FXUS62 KMFL 191747
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
147 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Ridging remains in place over the southeastern US, with a generally
easterly flow across South Florida today. Sounding date from the 12Z
MFL launch and ACARS flights show increasing moisture at the lower
levels this morning, topped by a deep layer of dry air aloft. This
influx of moisture near the surface has capitalized on frictional
convergence near the East Coast and the passage of a subtle upper
level disturbance resulting in the development of isolated showers
across the region early this morning. Activity will continue through
the afternoon, with coverage becoming more scattered as the
dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea breeze further
inland. As such, kept 40-50% PoPs progressing from the interior
towards the Gulf coast this afternoon.

A similar weather pattern continues on Thursday but with enhanced
moisture advection as a surface trough approaches from the western
Atlantic. This could result in slightly higher POPs and more
widespread coverage across the area.

Temperatures across the East Coast today will benefit from the
breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s.
Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the
day, with highs in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure and its partnering mid-level ridging will continue
to dominate the eastern CONUS seaboard as we move into the long
term. This feature will build westward into the central United
States as we head into the weekend. As a result, the strong
easterly flow will continue across South Florida for the end of
the week and through the weekend. With potential for relatively
moderate PWATs (~1.5-1.7") and instability, there will be less
convective coverage as the slightly drier air persists, but there
will be potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
on Friday.

Heading into the weekend, the ensembles indicate an increase in
moisture with modeled PWATs approaching 2.0"-2.2" and more activity
is expected. With the easterly flow and the high to our north, we
will remain in the climatological pattern with weaker showers
impacting the east coast areas in the morning followed by more
rainfall affecting the rest of South Florida in the latter half of
the day. While the models have backed off on moisture potential,
there is a chance for light to moderate showers (40-60%) and
possible brief downpours and lightning associated with any
thunderstorms across the region. Best chance for rainfall
accumulation will be in the afternoon across the interior and SW FL.

Early next week, an upper level low will come barreling across the
Great Lakes region as the high pressure over the eastern CONUS
breaks down and nudged back eastward. This will lead to the
development of a more S/SE flow across the area for the start of the
week as another frontal boundary approaches the SE CONUS. Models are
hinting at another moisture surge with the return of southerly flow,
but this is too far out for confidence in impact just yet.

With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal and
quite consistent through the weekend and into the new week. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the period as gusty easterly flow
prevails. Stray SHRA/TSRA could result in brief periods of MVFR
conditions along East Coast terminals in the early afternoon; did
not include TEMPOs in this forecast cycle due to low confidence
of timing and duration. SHRA/TSRA moves inland after 20Z with the
potential for sub-VFR conditions shifting westward towards KAPF.
Chances for rain diminish overnight, but VCSH could be possible
again tomorrow, starting early along the East Coast and then
progressing westward towards KAPF in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Breezy and gusty easterly wind flow across the local waters today
along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5
feet over the Gulf. A slight decrease in the E-SE winds will lead to
lower seas for the end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous
through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Robust easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across
all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  89  80  89 /  30  50  30  50
West Kendall     77  90  78  91 /  30  50  30  50
Opa-Locka        78  90  79  91 /  30  50  30  50
Homestead        78  89  79  89 /  30  50  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  79  87  80  88 /  30  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  87  79  90 /  30  50  30  50
Pembroke Pines   79  91  80  92 /  30  50  30  50
West Palm Beach  77  87  78  89 /  30  50  30  50
Boca Raton       78  87  79  90 /  30  50  30  50
Naples           76  92  77  93 /  10  50  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV