![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
266 FXUS66 KMFR 222151 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 251 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .DISCUSSION...A decline in temperatures is expected Sunday and Monday as front moves across the region, most notably west of the Cascades. This won`t be before we have one last hot day, today. Mt. Shasta City is already within three degrees of the previous record max temperature today of 96 degrees (1992), is on track to at least tie it, and there is a 40% chance the temperature rises above this record. Some cumulus is beginning to pop along and east of the Cascades as well, but we are not expecting any of these to become rain producers. The rain production, or more likely drizzle, production will be possible tonight into Sunday morning as moisture gets pooled along the front, and wrung out through topographic lifting into the Coast range and Cascade Foothills in Douglas County. The more noticeable impact from this front will be a strong marine push and the stratus that will accompany it. There is a high chance that this stratus fills the coastal valleys, but there remains uncertainty if the clouds will push into the central Umpqua Basin because of the existing dry air. Winds will also be amplified today about 4-8 mph faster than normal, but still from the typical afternoon direction. Sunday, winds will peak behind this front east of the Cascades and this will drive gusts of 25 to 35 mph. This could have implications for fire weather, and is covered in the fire weather discussion below. Transient high pressure will build over the region Monday and Tuesday. That said, the heat risk will remain low, with overnight low temperatures remaining below 60 degrees. The next trough is expected on Wednesday and will need some close monitoring because the mid-level and upper-level jet appear stacked in many model solutions, and could bring some elevated wind speeds to the area Wednesday and Thursday. This trough also has some strong instability and lift associated with it and I would not totally rule out this having some low end thunderstorm potential. While most of these impacts will fall into the realm of fire weather, it could create less than favorable conditions for anyone working or recreating out in the mountains. After this trough, the cycle of 2-3 days of high pressure and heat, followed by another trough looks to repeat. -Miles && .AVIATION...(22/18Z TAFs)...Aside from some lingering LIFR ceilings over portions of the marine waters and along the coast south of Gold Beach, VFR conditions prevail across the region. Conditions may improve briefly south of Gold Beach this afternoon but confidence is low in the duration and extent. Otherwise, VFR will prevail for all other areas through the afternoon. Expect the typical increase in afternoon breezes today, though slightly enhanced due to an incoming upper level trough. Late this afternoon and overnight, this trough will push the marine layer back along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin overnight tonight. Expect the return of LIFR/IFR conditions along the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco between 23z-03z, lifting to IFR around 04-06z. Conditions in the Umpqua Basin are expected to be MVFR, including at Roseburg (KRBG). The marine layer does not look deep enough to "spill over" the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, but there could be some scattered clouds that develop over the Illinois and Applegate Valleys around sunrise Sunday morning. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 115 PM Saturday, June 22, 2024...The thermal trough will weaken today, but gusty north winds and steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco through the weekend. A weak front will bring a surge of stratus late today into Sunday with light showers possible mainly across the northern waters. By late Sunday afternoon, the thermal trough will restrengthen, bringing increasing north winds and steepening seas. Steep seas are expected for much of the waters south of Cape Blanco, with very steep and hazardous seas developing south of Pistol River late Sunday afternoon and evening. These conditions will persist through Monday evening before another front disrupts the pattern either Tuesday or Wednesday. /BR-y && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM Saturday, June 22, 2024...East of the Cascades, brief durations of both critical wind & humidity are possibly today through Monday. Modoc County in particular will reach critical RH/wind tomorrow for more than 50% of the county, and after talking with fuels experts, we felt it was necessary to issue a warning for areas where fuels are more receptive, albeit perhaps still on the moderate side. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for areas on the westside. This will be thanks to good overnight recoveries (80% and higher) in valleys and moderate to good humidity recoveries over upper slopes and ridges (50-70%) overnight. Afternoon humidities in these areas will bottom out in in the 20 percent range with typical afternoon breezy conditions. No lightning is expected over the forecast area through at least Tuesday. Looking ahead, Wednesday in particular could bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions as a strong low pressure system moves into the area. The threat of strong winds associated with this system has our attention. Stay tuned as this is Day 5 so changes could occur. Specifically, if the system trends farther south, we may have stronger wind speeds and a chance for thunderstorms. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. && $$