Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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330 FXUS66 KMFR 141734 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1034 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...Updated AVIATION discussion... .DISCUSSION...An update is not necessary. The focus in preparing for this afternoon`s issuance will be upon the temperature and probability of precipitation forecasts. Specifically, it will be much cooler ahead of, and with the passage of a closed low Sunday through Monday night. with the highest probability of precipitation Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures will be coldest Saturday night. First, patchy east side frost and a northern Klamath County freeze are likely tonight. If supported by the incoming 12Z data, a freeze watch may be necessary for portions of the east side, for Saturday night and Monday night. Temperatures will also be cold on Sunday night, but cloud cover would be likely to prevent frost formation. Temperatures begin to rebound, and the air mass turns drier Tuesday, with above normal temperatures likely from Wednesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...14/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions are present across northern California and southern Oregon this morning, and are expected to continue through the TAF period. High clouds will move over the area this afternoon and evening, but nothing that will change any flight levels. Gusty afternoon winds in the Rogue Valley and east of the Cascades will calm into the evening. Guidance suggests a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings over the Oregon coast north of Cape Blanco near the end of the TAF period, but confidence is not high enough to include those ceilings in this round of TAFs. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 830 AM Friday, June 14, 2024...North winds and steep seas will linger today south of Cape Blanco. Conditions will gradually improve Friday evening as a weak cold front approaches. The front passes on Friday night. A thermal trough over northern California may produce advisory strength north winds near shore south of Gold Beach Saturday afternoon and evening. By Sunday, there is a lot of uncertainty with model guidance, and there is the potential for a strong low to pass later Sunday into Monday. This could bring in a strong fresh swell in addition to stronger wind speeds than we currently have forecast. We essentially have a scenario where either an upper level low takes a northern track or a southern track through the region. As the track becomes clearer, we should have a much better idea of potential hazards (or lack thereof) early next week. -CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ DISCUSSION...Two records for maximum temperatures were set yesterday. At Mt. Shasta the old record of 88 degrees was beaten when the temperature peaked at 90 degrees. At Montague, the previous record of 94 degrees was tied. Following some record warm temperatures, stratus has once again built into coastal valleys of SW Oregon and is trying to spread up the Umpqua river valley, too. Meanwhile, currently, stratus has returned in some coastal valleys and is developing in some parts of western Douglas County. The stratus is expected to lift and dissipate by this afternoon. As a broad trough takes hold over the region the main impact over the next few days will be in introducing cooler temperatures. The most notable of which are temperatures near or below freezing returning to the mountains and areas east of the Cascades. Frost is also expected with these conditions. The cold overnight temperatures are expected to peak Saturday and Sunday nights, with Monday forecast to be the coolest day in this period. Otherwise, we are expecting humidities to trend up and for the afternoon diurnal winds to be enhanced a bit, but none of this is expected to cause any impacts. Slightly more active weather is possible early on Saturday as a decaying front brings a 10-30% chance for less than 0.1" of an inch of rain to the coast and Douglas County. Models are continuing to point towards later Sunday and Monday as being a period of being more likely to have more frequent rain shower chances. There is a broad 10-15% chance across NorCal and SW Oregon Sunday evening, with the chance for precipitation peaking around 50% in the Cascades at the same time. Amounts are forecast to generally be less than 0.1", except in the Cascades and eastern Douglas County where amounts are forecast to be around 0.25". Although both road and many rocky surfaces are likely too warm to support holding new snow cover, there is snow in the forecast for the higher peaks in the Cascades, with a 20% chance that up to 1" falls. So, overall light amounts of both rain and snow, which should have minimal impact beyond maybe causing some slick roads. Thunderstorm activity still doesn`t look all that likely, too, but is possible north towards the Willamette Valley and central Cascades. High pressure is expected to return through the end of next week, but is generally characterized by warm, rather than hot, temperatures, and regular diurnal wind cycles. -Miles && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. && $$