621
FXUS62 KMHX 010713
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
313 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead through the
weekend. A backdoor front likely moves through the area late
Monday, with high pressure building in behind it from the north
through midweek. Thereafter high pressure will reestablish
offshore through late next week with increasingly unsettled
conditions possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 AM Sat... Latest surface analysis shows calm winds and clear
skies across just about all of ENC this morning as surface high
pressure remains centered over the region. Great radiational cooling
across ENC has resulted in temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s inland
with mid to upper 50s found along the OBX. Could still see temps
drop another few degrees as good radiational cooling remains in
place and the forecast low temps are likely to near record lows
this morning...see the CLIMATE section for details.

Otherwise, still not expecting any ground fog development (less than
10% chance) resulting in a rather comfortable and pleasant
start to our day.

As we get into today, upper level and surface ridging remain
over the Eastern Seaboard resulting in a warm but dry start to
meteorological summer. Kept dewpoints slightly below the lowest
guidance today given lack of change in the dry airmass
overhead. Seabreeze does develop this afternoon which could
result in some gusty winds behind it as light and variable winds
become S`rly behind the seabreeze at 5-10 mph with a few gusts
up around 15-20 mph at times this afternoon.

With increasing low-level heights, temperatures will warm into the
low to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sat... Upper level and surface ridging do finally
push offshore tonight, though winds will be light and variable
across the entire region. Skies will remain mo clear to start
this evening allowing for another night of good radiational
cooling through at least the first half of the night. As the
upper level high pushes further offshore, upper level flow will
become SW`rly allowing upper level moisture to finally begin to
overspread ENC late Sat night. As a result high clouds begin to
build in from the south and west likely slowing any
temperatures drops after about midnight. High clouds continue
to overspread the region towards daybreak with lows getting
into the mid to upper 50s inland and mid 60s along the OBX and
immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Pleasant and below normal conditions continue
Sunday. Then conditions become more unsettled Monday ahead of a
backdoor cold front which will move through the area Monday
night and bring slightly cooler conditions through Wednesday.
Scattered precip chances continue Tuesday, and then increasingly
unsettled weather is expected Wednesday through late week as
moist southerly flow increases.

Sunday...High pressure continues just offshore Sunday, and our
cooler and drier airmass holds on for one more day. Expect highs
mostly in the low 80s with some isolated mid 80s possible. Only
potential fly in the ointment will be the coverage and thickness
of high based clouds, which could produce overcast conditions at
times during the day, especially over the coastal plain.

Monday and Tuesday...Moisture will continue to spread into the
area early Monday morning from the top down, and may produce
some isolated showers through daybreak. Moisture advection
continues Monday as PWATs surge above 1.5", and expect a decent
coverage (~40%) of showers and thunderstorms with building
instability and the development of sea/sound breezes.

A backdoor cold front will move through the forecast area
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning and bring a more stable
and slightly cooler airmass to the coast. Onshore flow will keep
coastal areas mostly in the 70s, but further inland temps will
climb into the low to mid 80s, and encourage some scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development.

Wednesday through Friday...Moisture looks to quickly surge back
into the forecast area Wednesday as the high pressure to the
north breaks down. Southerly flow will return late in the day,
and will then continue through late week as high pressure
rebuilds offshore. Continued moisture advection will bring PWATs
up to 1.5-2" late next week, and there is a signal for unsettled
conditions ahead of a potent upper level trough. Temperatures
will climb to near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s
each day, and lows mostly in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 1255 AM Sat... Expecting VFR conditions and light winds
through the TAF period across ENC as high pressure builds
overhead this evening and on Saturday. A few minor things to
note in the aviation forecast. The first is the very low (less
than 10%) chance for some steam/ground fog. If fog were to occur
it would likely be between 09-12Z and at the EWN/PGV terminals
given their proximity to the nearby rivers. However, given the
very low threat have kept any fog mention out of the TAFs and
will continue to monitor trends tonight. The second will be the
potential for some gusty S`rly winds (around 15 kts) behind the
seabreeze Sat afternoon. Will likely hold off on any specific
mention of the seabreeze in the TAFs on this update but will
plan to include some mention of gusty S`rly winds (~15 kts) at
the TAF sites on the morning update. Finally as upper level
moisture finally begins to stream in from the S and W Sat
evening, expect some high clouds to build in Sat night though
with ceilings above 15 kft no impact is expected from the
incoming high clouds.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Mostly VFR conditions are expected Sunday
with high pressure overhead. More unsettled conditions are
possible Monday through Wednesday which could bring some periods
of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday night/...
As of 3 AM Sat... Rather benign boating conditions are forecast
through tonight across our waters as high pressure ridging
which is currently overhead slowly slides offshore. This will
keep things dry across our waters while NW to NE`rly winds at
5-10 kts gradually shift to an E to SE`rly direction at about
5-15 kts this afternoon. Winds become more S`rly tonight
persisting at about 5-10 kts. Current observed seas of 2-3 feet
will remain steady through tonight, with seas nearshore
remaining slightly lower, around 1 to 2 feet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Good boating conditions expected through the
period. High pressure continues over the waters Sunday and
Monday, and then a backdoor front moves through early Tuesday
and keep light onshore flow into Wednesday.

Winds will be mostly S 5-15 kts Sunday, and then turn to the SSW
Monday at 10-15 kts. Backdoor front moves through the waters
early Tuesday with winds becoming NNE behind it at 5-15 kts.
Flow then become E to SE Wednesday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for June 1, Saturday.

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      48/1966  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 50/1966  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    45/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 48/1984  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       42/1984  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  50/1966  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX