961
FXUS62 KMHX 212316
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal troughing continues through Sunday, while high pressure
shifts offshore over the weekend, and continuing into the
upcoming week. A front approaches on Monday, with another front
affecting the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Fri...Not much change overall in the forecast as
ongoing shower activity inland has begun to wane, though an iso
shower or two can`t be ruled out through about 8PM before things
officially quiet down across ENC. Otherwise ongoing shower
activity offshore along the Gulf Stream will continue through
tonight. There has also been a lack of change in the fog threat
for tonight, so kept patchy fog in the forecast with
visibilities as low as 1 mile at times early this morning
primarily along our SW`rn Counties, though some Hi-Res guidance
does suggest we could see vis as low as 0.5 mile or less at
times and this will be something we need to monitor overnight.

Diurnal iso/sct showers will end by early
evening, with quiet/warm/muggy conditions tonight. Main
challenge tonight will be fog coverage and density tonight. HREF
cont a 20-40% chance of more impactful fog developing (<1/2
mile), and this will be something we`ll continue to monitor in
later forecasts. For now, have patchy fog mentioned generally
west of Hwy 17. Used persistence from last night`s fog,
affecting the swrn counties the hardest. If more of a low
stratus deck develops instead, this would tend to limit the
dense fog potential.

A renegade offshore shower may migrate onshore, esp late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Similar synoptic setup for Sat expected, with
some iso/sct coastal showers developing in the morning and
migrating inland through the day. Think that areas north of Hwy
70 will remain mainly dry once again. No thunder fcst once
again, as forcing is very weak and not much upper support
despite some decent instability vals. Warm and humid with highs
in the mid 90s northwest, to low 90s elsewhere inland, and 80s
coast. Heat indices will not be an issue, and generally remain
at 100 or lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...

Sunday...Surface high pressure over the Atlantic continues to
travel east, which will put ENC under southwesterly flow and
start a warming and moistening trend. Along the east coast,
coastal troughing will develop and last through the weekend. The
main lacking ingredient for a much needed widespread rainfall
event is instability, so the majority of shower and thunderstorm
activity will likely develop along the seabreeze. Of more
concern is the oppressive heat, especially on Sunday, when
"feels like" temperatures are expected to reach 100-105F.

Monday-Friday...We`ll remain mostly under southerly flow, which
will pump in ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and
increase humidity to uncomfortable levels. Diurnal PoPs are in
the forecast each day but better chances will be on Monday and
Thursday due to a series of frontal passages. The main points of
focus for the coming week will be triple digit "feels like"
temperatures and the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms on Monday.

 - Dangerous Heat: With increasing heat and humidity, heat
   indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s each day this
   week. This raises concern for heat related illnesses for
   those spending time outdoors. No heat headlines are in place
   as of now, but trends will be monitored.

 - Monday Storms: Instability and deep layer shear look to be
   plentiful across the area. If this holds, some strong to
   severe storms are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 710 PM Fri... Not much
change in the forecast for tonight as we are starting to see
cloud cover rapidly dissipate across ENC this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. THis will allow for VFR ceilings and
vis through at least early evening across the area. Moistening
low-levels plus calm to light winds later tonight looks to be
supportive of IFR conditions (either from low CIGs or BR/FG).
Have both ceilings and vis in the IFR range so 1 kft or less and
less than 3 miles primarily after 06Z tonight. However continue
to monitor for some potential dense fog as has happened last
night for southern TAF sites (KEWN and KOAJ). If dense fog were
to occur it would likely be between 08-11Z Sat. By about 12-14Z,
any low ceilings/vis will quickly dissipate and VFR conditions
are then forecast through midday. Much like today some iso to
widely scattered shower and tstm activity will be possible after
16Z on Sat though given the isolated nature of this activity
have held off on including it in the TAFs just yet. Winds
continue to remain relatively light out of the S tomorrow as
well.



LONG TERM /Sat night through Wed/...
As of 4 AM Friday...SHRA and TSRA development are possible each
day along the seabreeze. Monday will present the best
opportunity for sub- VFR conditions given an environment that
could support strong to marginally severe storms. Winds will
generally be SW with 20 kt gusts possible late Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Shra will cont to dot the srn coastal waters
through tonight into Sun as weak tropical disturbance well to
the south ambles near the GA coast. Winds will be light srly
tonight generally around 10 kt with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft.
Winds pick up on Sat as thermal gradient tightens and high pres
shifts further offshore, with speeds of 10-20 kt by later in the
afternoon. Seas will cont around 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wed/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Sub- SCA conditions will persist until
Sunday when SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.
Seas will be 2-3 ft on Saturday and build to 3-5 by later
Sunday. The new week will continue similar conditions with gusts
possibly dipping just below SCA criteria. Conditions improve
Tuesday after a cold front passes through, which will generate
variable winds at 10 kt or less and 3-4 ft seas diminishing to
2-3 ft. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each
day but Monday presents the best chance for some to be stronger
to marginally severe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 3 PM Fri...A coastal trough will continue through Sunday,
with higher RH and some isolated to scattered showers for
coastal counties. Inland, it will cont hot and dry through the
weekend, with lower RH. Winds will be southerly on Saturday,
then increase on Sunday and become gusty with speeds up to 20
mph. RH will steadily increase each day as well, with minimum RH
values in the 40s and 50s. Despite the increasing RH, fine
fuels remain very dry thanks to a lack of appreciable rainfall
of late, and this will overlap with breezy conditions on Sunday,
potentially supporting elevated fire concerns.

For the area at large, the better chance of wetting rainfall
comes Monday. From a climatology standpoint, the recent stretch
of dry weather is noteworthy. For most of Eastern NC, it`s been
at least 2 weeks since the last wetting rainfall. For a deeper
rainfall (ie. 0.25" or more), it`s been almost a month for most
of the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...RCF/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX