456
FXUS62 KMHX 281400
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds in from the north Friday into
Saturday with another front approaching late Sunday through
Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area from the
north on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 10 AM Fri...No big changes. Still thinking sct showers and
a storm or two will be confined mainly south of Hwy 70 this
afternoon, with nrn areas remaining dry. Pops remain at 20-40%

Prev disc...As of 615 AM Fri...Key message today:

A little cooler and slightly less humid across the northern
coastal plain. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
less than on Thursday.

The "front" which crossed the area last night was not much of a
front in a literal sense as there will be very little change in
temperature and dewpoint across most of the area. It will be a
little drier in that coverage of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will less than on Thursday. Easterly low level
flow will be prominent today in the wake of the aforementioned
front. The high res models indicate that dewpoints could mix
down into mid 60s over the northern coastal plain this
afternoon while remaining in the mid 70s across the remainder of
the area and depicted this in the wx grids. Highs will range
from the mid 80s beaches to the upper 80s to lower 90s inland.

The consensus of the guidance is indicating scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and mostly
along/south of Highway 70 vicinity of the sea breeze. Continued
with the higher NBM PoPs which are around 40% as opposed to the
model MOS which is only around 20%. Most of the CAMs supported
the higher PoPs of the NBM. The lack of shear should preclude
severe storms but with MLCAPES of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW values
around 2" torrential downpours will occur in the strongest cells
with local rainfall in excess of 1" possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Tonight will be interesting as the models
are forecasting an increase in dewpoints and PW area wide as the
low level flow veers to the SE. This could result in widely
scattered showers and storms forming over the gulfstream then
moving northward into coastal eastern NC especially east of
Highway 17. Thus will have slight chance PoPs to account for
this as not expecting coverage to be that high. Muggy lows in
the low to mid 70s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Fri...High pressure will continue to ridge down into
the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before pushing offshore on Sun as a cold
front begins to approach from the west. This will continue to bring
excessive heat and humidity to the area over the weekend. Heat
related impacts will be a threat in the afternoons through Sunday.
A frontal passage on Sun night into Monday will bring our next best
threat for precip and some relief from the heat. Mainly dry
conditions are then forecast from Tue on into the end of next
week with a warming trend and return to hot and humid conditions
expected as well.

Saturday through Monday... High pressure ridging continues to extend
across the Mid-Atlantic through early Sunday before a cold front
nears and eventually tracks across the region Sun night into Mon.
This will bring a threat for oppressive heat and humidity to ENC
this weekend. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s
along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper 90s across the
Coastal Plain both Sat and Sun. Combined with the high humidity
across ENC, heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110 this
weekend. With lows only getting down into the 70s each night
there will not be much relief resulting in an increased threat
for excessive heat out ahead of the approaching cold front.

Diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible on Sat
with a higher threat for more widespread shower and tstm
activity Sun afternoon into Mon as the aforementioned front
nears and tracks across the region. With hot and humid
conditions across ENC on Sun, guidance is suggesting that
SBCAPE values will creep up to 1000-2000 J/kg Sun afternoon and
evening out ahead of the front. Though, with little in the way
of deep layer shear and stronger forcing likely not getting to
ENC until later Sun night which is the less favorable timeframe
for severe weather, expect thunderstorms to generally remain
sub-severe in nature. Though, a few isolated storms capable of
producing gusty winds, small hail, and torrential downpours is
not out of the question during this timeframe. Either way
increasing precip chances start Sun afternoon and persist
through Mon morning before chances decrease from NW to SE Mon
afternoon as the front pushes offshore and a more stable
airmass overspreads the CWA. Have limited PoP`s to Chc to
likely during this timeframe as well as there is some
uncertainty with exact timing of precip and how widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity will be. In addition to this,
given the latest trends, 1 to 2, locally 3+ inches of rainfall
will not be out of the question with the heaviest amounts
occuring anywhere thunderstorms can train over each other.

We do finally get some relief from the heat on Mon behind the front
with highs only getting into the 80s.

Tuesday into the end of next week...Behind this front a brief
respite from the heat is forecast on Tue with a return to hot
and humid conditions later next week as a warming trend
commences with high pressure once again ridging in from the
north. Expecting a mainly dry forecast as well from Tue onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 615 AM Fri...As has been the case most of this past week,
forecasting the potential for nocturnal sub VFR conditions in
fog and stratus remains difficult early this morning and again
overnight. Consensus of guidance is for a mixture of patchy fog
and low clouds potentially producing a brief period of MVFR
early this morning. Could see a better chance for fog and or
stratus late tonight as flow becomes SE and moistens the low
levels. Outside of this, expecting VFR conditions with light
winds. Widely scattered afternoon storms could produce brief sub
VFR conditions especially at EWN and OAJ.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri... Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast across ENC on Sat with some periods of sub-
VFR conditions possible in the afternoon and evening. A cold
front will arrive late Sun and track across the region on Mon.
This will bring a much better threat for sub VFR conditions Sun
afternoon through Mon before VFR conditions return Tues into
Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 615 AM Fri...High pressure builds in from the north today
into tonight. Light variable winds early this morning will
become NE and then become E and increase to 10-20 kt late this
morning and afternoon. Tonight E winds 10-15 kt become SE. Seas
will be 2-4 ft through tonight.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri...High pressure ridging will extend across our waters
on Sat before pushing further offshore on Sun as a cold front
approaches from the west. This will bring 10-15 kt S`rly winds
and 2-4 ft seas across our waters on Sat with winds increasing
slightly on Sun closer to 10-20 kts and becoming SW`rly as the
front nears the area and the gradient tightens slightly. Front
will track across the region on Mon allowing winds to shift to a
N`rly direction behind the front at 15-20 kts Mon morning with
winds gradually easing down to 10-15 kts as high pressure ridge
once again extends across the area from the north. Seas will
generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe though 5
ft seas will be possible near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night
into Mon. In addition to this, expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sun evening into Mon as the front tracks across
the region bringing locally enhanced winds and seas within the
strongest storms.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...JME/RCF
MARINE...JME/RCF