Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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033 FXUS62 KMHX 171809 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 209 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will continue to shift further inland and away from the ENC today. Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through next week as well keeping unsettled conditions across ENC. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 1:40 PM Tuesday...The remnants of PTC #8 are now well inland over SC. An occluded front is draped across NC from west to east and a surface low has formed along the periphery of this boundary, which continues to support shower and thunderstorm development mainly north of Highway 70. Activity should continue to wane over the next couple of hours due to dry air entrainment in the upper levels. With plenty of low level moisture and weak flow, low level clouds will stick around for the remainder of the period. Highs will be coolest along the Northern Outer Banks where northeasterly flow and continued showers will keep temps in the mid 70s. The rest of the CWA will top out in the low 80s. The risk of coastal flooding along the inland rivers will wane today, but will persist along coastal locations - see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for more details. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 415 AM Tue...Frontal boundary will shift towards the NC/VA border overnight, and any lingering rainfall threat will remain north of Highway 264 after sunset. Given very saturated soils, light winds, and moist low-levels depicted by model soundings, tonight looks ideal for widespread low stratus to overspread the region. Lows will be slightly below average, in the mid 60s. Farther norther and closer to the front, temps will run a few degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tue...Unsettled weather will continue through the period as persistent mid/upper level troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard. This will result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region into next weekend. Wednesday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the weekend, there remains uncertainty with the forecast as the upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard is forecast to cutoff into an upper low as upper ridging builds across the Northeast. As is typical with upper lows, spread in timing and depth of the feature remains large and forecast confidence remains below average. Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially tied to the diurnal cycle in the afternoons to early evenings is expected across the area into the weekend. Continued onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while temps remain at or below avg. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Wednesday/... As of 1:40 PM Tuesday...The bulk of remaining shower and thunderstorm activity is now focused over communities north of Highway 70. We should continue to dry out through the rest of the day, but weak winds and plentiful low-level moisture will keep lower clouds around through the rest of the day. There`s a good signal for fog and low stratus to develop tonight, especially over the inner coastal plain. Given the strong signal in the guidance, it would not be surprising for inland terminals (PGV and OAJ) to spend at least a few hours at IFR or LIFR between midnight and sunrise. The typically reliable GLAMP has IFR ceiling probabilities in the 50-80% range for PGV and 40-60% range for ISO. These terminals also have a 20-30% chance of at least IFR visibilities. The GLAMP has terminals closer to the coast (OAJ and EWN) at a 30-40% chance of MVFR ceilings and a 10-30% chance of MVFR visibilities between midnight and sunrise. However, given the weak wind field and saturated soils, there seems to be a much greater chance at sub-VFR conditions than what guidance is putting forth for these areas. Fog should subside after sunrise, but the low clouds may linger into the late morning. All terminals should be back to VFR by tomorrow afternoon. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 300 AM Tue...Continued unsettled weather will bring a chance for brief/occasional sub-VFR conditions across ENC daily due to widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 420 AM Tue...Dangerous marine conditions persist offshore as occluded front lifts northwards across the waters, currently situated along the eastern half of Onslow Bay and well demarcated by shower and thunderstorm activity on its eastern edge. Synoptic winds are quickly collapsing as the pressure gradient weakens in the wake of the parent low, and outside of convective gusts regional winds are around 10-15 kt. Seas remain quite high, sitting at 7-10 feet. Winds are expected to weaken further, eventually becoming southwesterly tonight behind the frontal boundary but holding at 10 kt or less. This will give seas plenty of room to subside, and by sunrise on Wednesday all offshore waters are expected to be below 6 feet. No changes were offered to existing SCA headlines this morning. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 300 AM Tue...Winds should remain generally light /10 kt or less/ through Wed with the flow W-SW Wed, and N on Thu. Northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Fri then become NE 15-20 kt Sat. Seas will be 3-5 ft Wed, then 2-4 ft Thu and Fri. Seas could build to 4-6 ft Sat due to the increased NE winds. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 430 AM Tues...Bands of heavy rain continue to lift north and east across ENC this morning, with the heaviest rainfall currently focused across eastern Carteret and forecast to lift northward across the Outer Banks through late this morning. These bands have had a history of producing hourly rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. This is a bigger concern for flash flooding south of Highway 70 where several inches of rain have already fallen, but to the north where many spots have failed to see an inch, the flash flooding risk will be more marginal. Storm total amounts north of Highway 70 and the Outer Banks still look to range between 1-2" with locally higher amounts in stronger rain bands. In response to the rainfall, river levels are beginning to rise across ENC and will continue to do so through mid-week. Flood Warnings are already posted at Chinquapin and Pollocksville, and further warnings for other rivers may be needed in future forecast cycles. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Coastal flooding will continue to be a risk through at least one more high tide cycle this morning, and the Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended to capture this potential. With this week being a higher tide cycle, in general, the risk of minor coastal flooding may linger beyond today, and adjustments to the advisories may be needed. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ047-203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...JME/MS AVIATION...OJC/JME MARINE...JME/MS HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX