Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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019 FXUS62 KMHX 210541 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 141 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge southwards across the Carolinas through this weekend. Next potential frontal system doesn`t near ENC until at least mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 930 PM Fri...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for late evening update. High pressure continues to ridge southwards over the Carolinas, with drier air filtering in. Expecting good radiational cooling with mostly clear skies and light winds which should promote the development of patchy fog and/or low clouds again after midnight. One caveat to the fog threat is if enough low cloud cover overspreads ENC tonight the patchy fog threat would be lower than currently indicated. Lows inland will be in the low to mid 60s and upper 60s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 320 PM Fri...Rather benign day as high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard moves little keeping the area dry and warm. Any leftover patchy fog quickly dissipates after sunrise. Still expect a diurnal Cu field to develop in the late morning to early afternoon but don`t expect any precip through the day. Highs get into the upper 70s to mid 80s resulting in a rather great start to the weekend. One thing to note is the King Tide will peak this weekend resulting in a threat for some minor coastal flooding on Sat around times of high tide (SEE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION for more details). && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday...Ridging starts building in through the weekend as a low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually shifting further offshore to our east. Slight chances of rain Sunday-Sunday night (20%) but otherwise a dry forecast through Tuesday. Seasonable temps through the period and generally dry through Tuesday evening. Rain chances increase mid to late week as ridging weakens and a low treks across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. The Weekend: Expanded the slight chance of showers (and thunderstorms during peak heating) Sunday with synoptic models all keying in on 2 waves of potential rainfall. First Sunday morning a weak front and associated isentropic lift from a low developing near the Great Lakes moves through the region. Ridging from a high to our E/SE will help shelter the southern half of the CWA from rainfall, but have expanded the slight chance PoP mentions for the northern half where ridging is a bit weaker. This front fizzles out as it crosses our CWA. The second wave looks to be Sunday afternoon/evening as a boundary ahead of ridging building in from the north could initiate showers over ENC. Introduced Schc PoPs with this update, opting to not go higher as we have a lack of upper level support. Monday-Thursday: Low offshore could produce high swell impacting OBX beaches Monday-Tuesday. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information. Ridging and dry conditions continue through Tuesday evening. Tuesday night ridging starts to weaken over ENC as a low approaches from the midwest, pushing the high further northeast. While a cold front from this low will be pushing through the ohio and mississippi valley Tuesday, there is uncertainty on when the front will reach us. If the ridge takes longer to move out of here, the front could reach us as soon as Wednesday morning. There is also a chance that the front doesn`t reach us at all if ridge remains stubborn. Kept PoPs at Schc for now Wednesday with so much uncertainty with the front. High offshore helps channel moisture towards ENC mid to late week, increasing PoPs to Chc/Schc Wednesday night onwards as we enter a wetter pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Sunday/... As of 130 AM Saturday... - IFR/MVFR conditions possible overnight (40-60% chance) The main forecast challenge overnight will be the potential for MIFG/BR/FG. Short-term model guidance and satellite imagery reveal a layer of dry air spreading SW across Eastern NC at this time, which should help to keep the depth of low-level moisture shallow. Synoptically, the pattern is favorable for the development of FG, but conditions don`t currently appear favorable for a deeper, more impactful, layer of FG. We`ll keep a close eye on this through the night and amend the TAFs as needed. For now, I stuck close to the previous TAFs, highlighting a window of IFR/MVFR VIS in the 08z-12z timeframe. On Saturday, high pressure will remain overhead with light winds and VFR conditions. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 345 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... As of 930 PM Fri...Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt gusting up to 25 kt across the outer central waters, with seas 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. No changes in the forecast as SCA`s will remain in effect for the waters north of Ocracoke Inlet through this weekend and into early next week as swell from a low pressure system in the northwest- Atlantic moves into the northern and central waters today and tonight. N to NE winds at 5-15 kt will persist through the period as high pressure builds over the waters from the north. 2 to 4 ft seas south of Ocracoke Inlet will build to 3-5 ft tonight and remain at 3-5 ft through Sat. North of Ocracoke Inlet seas will remain 4-6 ft through Sat. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 400 AM Friday...SCA In Effect through 6Z Tuesday (and will likely need to be extended further with future updates) for coastal waters north of Ocracoke. Sustained NE winds 10-15 kt Saturday and Sunday, then 15-20 kt Monday before dropping back down to 10-15 kt Tuesday. Winds have continued trending down Sunday into Monday, forecasted to remain generally below 25 kts. Waves greater than 6 ft from the low offshore have warranted an SCA issuance for the coastal waters N of Ocracoke (with other coastal waters also likely to reach SCA criteria seas early next week given the current forecast), Seas will be 2-7 ft Saturday, 2-6 ft Sunday, and 2-8 ft Monday/Tuesday as gusty winds + the low offshore results in higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow will be a bit protected from the more easterly swell courtesy of Cape Lookout, and will be on the lower end of these wave height ranges. OBX (particularly north of Hatteras) and the Gulf Stream will not be protected and will see the higher values in the ranges above. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 320 PM Fri...Coastal flooding will continue to be a threat given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle into early next week during high tide each day. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for all oceanside coastal areas into Monday mornings high tide. Increased swell from a low offshore brings minor overwash concerns early next week for OBX north of Cape Hatteras. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...RM/RJ MARINE...CQD/RCF/RJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX