866
FXUS62 KMHX 241847
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area this evening, with
drier high pressure briefly building in behind it for Tuesday.
High pressure then restrengthens offshore Wednesday, with
another cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High
pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late
week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Mon...Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for
eastern NC through 8 PM this evening. Latest analysis shows cold
front approaching the coastal plain this afternoon while the
mid level trough moves through NC. Convection continues to
blossom with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
and expect coverage to continue to increasing and pushing
eastward over the next few hours. There is potential for
damaging wind gusts, large hail, frequent lightning and minor
flooding. Mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE values 2-2500 J/k and 20-30
kt of shear. PW values are forecast to exceed 2" as low level
lapse rates steepen with heating. This will favor multi- cell
cluster development with damaging wind gusts and hail around 1"
possible. A supercell or two could develop with the potential
for a very strong wind gust and hail to 1.5". The area most
favorable for this would be north of Highway 70 in the region of
strongest shear. In addition to the severe threat, the
potential for locally heavy rains will exist as PW values exceed
2" favoring torrential downpours. Some minor poor drainage
flooding will be possible as the CAM`s indicate the potential
for local rainfall of 2-3" in regions that receive frequent
downpours. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be widespread
east of Highway 17 early in the evening and should be mostly
offshore by 4Z as a weak cold front crosses the area this
evening. Severe threat should wind down around 00Z as loss of
heating occurs. Some brief relief from the heat is expected as
lows inland cool into the upper 60s.

Heat will also be a concern the next few hours with highs in
the mid 90s inland combined with dewpoints in the 70s and closer
to 80 along the coast. Expect Heat Index values 100-105 degrees
for the next few hours outside of convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Mon...High pressure will build in Tue, providing a
slightly cooler and drier airmass with low level easterly flow.
Veering onshore flow will keep the coast in the mid to upper
80s for highs, and upper 80s to low 90s inland under mostly
sunny skies. Still looks mostly dry, but can`t rule out an
isolated shower across the southern area during peak heating
closer to the weak boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Heat and humidity continue this week with
high pressure ridging into the area. Near normal precip chances
(scattered afternoon thunderstorms) are expected with rain
likely Thursday as a cold front moves into the area.

Wednesday through Friday...Local area of high pressure will
become absorbed into the massive western Atlantic ridge on
Wednesday with warm moist southerly flow returning to the
Carolinas. Thicknesses build rather quickly Wednesday, which
will allow for temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s
inland, and low 90s along the coast. Though it will be humid,
some mixing of drier air above the surface during the afternoon
will keep heat indices from becoming extreme, but still expect
values to range from 100 to 105 degrees.

Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, and
with good model consensus, confidence is increasing that we will
see good coverage of rain and thunderstorms (50-60% chance)
throughout the day. Precip chances will continue Thursday night
as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning.
Behind this front a marginally cooler airmass will build in with
high pressure to the north.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again Thursday ahead of the
front, but developing convection should limit highs to only the
upper 80s to low 90s. Even still heat indices will again top 100
degrees as dewpoints remain very high through the day. Slightly
cooler conditions expected Friday with onshore flow, and we will
see highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s
inland.

Saturday and Sunday...Heat and humidity look to build again this
weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. We`ll have highs
reaching the mid 90s inland, and the upper 80s to low 90s along
the coast. Dewpoints in the 70s both days will lead to heat
indices reaching at least 100 to 105. In this moist and unstable
airmass at least scattered chances for thunderstorms will be
possible, but greater chances may arrive late Sunday as yet
another front moves into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 245 PM Mon...VFR conditions currently across the sites
with thunderstorms quickly developing across the coastal plain.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce occasional sub VFR conditions with strong
wind gusts 40+ kt and hail through early this evening. Drier air
is forecast to move into eastern NC following the passage of a
weak cold front this evening. This could be patches of shallow
fog to develop late as winds diminish and skies clear.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are expected this week
with high pressure ridging in over the area. However, a cold
front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to the airspace Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead to
some periods of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 245 PM Mon...Latest obs show WSW-SW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest south of Hatteras with seas 2-4 ft north of Oregon
Inlet and 4-7 ft south. SCAs continue for the waters south of
Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound with gusty winds and elevated
seas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for the rivers,
sounds and coastal waters through this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and frequent
lightning will be possible for the next few hours. A cold front
will move through the waters this evening, pushing offshore
tonight. As the front crosses the area this evening, there will
be the potential for a brief period of northerly winds 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt immediately behind the front, then winds
will diminish to NE 10-15 kt late with seas diminishing to 2-5
ft. High pressure builds in for Tue with easterly winds 10-20 kt
and seas 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Decent boating conditions expected this week
with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a
cold front moves through.

Winds then veer to the south Wednesday at 5-15 kts, and then
increase to SSW 10-20 kts Wednesday night ahead of a cold front.
The front will cross the waters during the day Thursday from
north to south with winds becoming NE at 5-15 kts behind it and
remaining SW 5-15 kts to its south. Veering NE to E flow is then
expected Friday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this
week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...CQD/SGK