Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
974 FXUS63 KMKX 232048 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers for se WI on Tue with at least a small potential for heavy rainfall rates over far se WI. - A small potential for waterspouts over southern Lake MI for Tue-Tue nt. - Mild and Dry conditions for Wed-Fri. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night: Middle to high clouds will increase from the south late this afternoon into the evening as a shortwave trough over srn IA lifts nwd through srn WI. High based elevated instability may lead to some virga or even sprinkles this evening. Farther to the west a 110 kt nly jet streak will dig a shortwave trough from the nrn Great Plains to the IA/MO border by 00Z Wed. This will kick the shortwave trough over KS and weak low over srn MO newd on Tue. There are differences on the track of the low but the mean positioning would take the low and upper wave across nrn IN into south central lower MI. This would bring PWs up to 1.4 inches in far se WI with near saturation up to 10-15 kft possible. Frontogenesis in the sfc-850 mb layer cloud trigger some narrow bands of mdt to even heavy rainfall, but overall confidence is low in actual occurrence. A farther srn track like the NAM would greatly limit rainfall coverage while a more nrn track like the ECMWF would bring higher confidence for heavy rainfall rates in se WI. At this time will forecast 60-70 percent chances for showers from MKE south to ENW with smaller probs for heavy rainfall rates. The showers may then linger into Tue nt over far se WI. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Wednesday through Monday: Upper ridging will take hold over the Upper MS River Valley and wrn Great Lakes for Wed-Fri but shift a bit nwd as an upper low and the remnants of a tropical system move into the Middle MS River Valley and Ohio Valley. Mild and dry weather is forecast over srn WI through Fri with 20-40 percent chances for the weekend and Mon. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Sct-bkn035 cumulus this afternoon then lingering over far ern WI into the evening. Patchy fog will develop in low lying areas of south central WI late tnt. Farther east, MVFR Cigs will move from Lake MI well inland during the early morning hours of Tue and remain over ern WI throughout the day. Areas of Cigs below 1 kft and vsbys of 2-5SM BR are expected especially near the lake. The intermittent showers will contribute to the reduced vsbys at times. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Modest northeast winds will persist into this evening then veer to easterly late tonight. Weak high pressure will remain over Lake Superior while low pressure around 29.7 inches then tracks from southern IL to southern lower MI on Tuesday. This will bring a small potential for thunderstorms and waterspouts over southern Lake MI. The low will also maintain modest east to northeast winds shifting northerly for Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low moves away. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee