Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
531 FXUS63 KMKX 100252 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 952 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy north winds continue over the lake, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan into the early morning hours on Monday. - Occasional small chances for showers and storms Tuesday through the remainder of the week - Warmer temperatures likely mid to late week && .UPDATE... Issued 940 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Some sprinkles to light rain have been reported out of a low cloud deck behind a southward sinking backdoor cold front. These areas of sprinkles and light rain are mainly confined east of Interstate 41, north of Milwaukee, and are anticipated to sink southward and dissipate over the next few hours. Sprinkles may make it as far south as Milwaukee, with less confidence this activity makes it farther south toward Racine and Kenosha. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 302 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tonight and Monday: A back door cold front is advancing down the lake this afternoon which will bring cooler air onshore for places along the lakeshore. Winds will shift from northwest to northeast for lakeshore areas. The breezy northwest winds should prevent the wind shift and cooler temperatures from advancing further inland. Broad cyclonic flow continues to linger across the Great Lakes Region tonight into Monday. Increased temperatures and mixing have lowered dewpoints this afternoon. The lower available moisture within the column will make it very difficult to get any drizzle or sprinkles of the cloud cover advancing through central Wisconsin and into southern Wisconsin. Kept POPs null to reflect this. Breezy west to northwest winds will continue with the increased diurnal mixing through the afternoon and into the evening before beginning to wane again overnight tonight. High pressure will advance toward the state from the west Monday and will be overhead Monday night into Tuesday. This will keep conditions dry. Winds will be lighter Monday as the high pressure builds in. Temperatures are expected to be a bit cooler tomorrow with the light northerly flow. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 302 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tuesday through Sunday: High pressure over Lake MI Tue AM will track to the lower Great Lakes by the end of the day. Meanwhile a shortwave trough and low level sly winds and warm advection will move into south central WI by late afternoon or early evening. The shortwave trough will then pass Tue nt. PWs will increase to 1.1-1.3 inches and fcst soundings do attempt to saturate for brief periods, more so toward central WI. Increased PoPs to 50 percent north of MSN and MKE with 20 percent toward the IL border. A weak sfc trough will then follow for early Wed AM with lower PWs for Wed, but continued warm advection with high temps in the middle 80s away from the lake. Wnwly flow will prevail aloft for the remainder of the week. Warm, moist advection will likely initiate a MCS over srn MN Wed nt but could track sewd across ern IA into nw IL. SW WI could get clipped by this MCS but will not rule out sct showers and storms elsewhere given the warm, moist advection over the entire area. A warm front will probably become stationary near the WI and IL border for Thu with warm, moist advection north of the front over srn WI continuing chances for showers and storms. A cold front will finally pass Thu nt with high pressure returning for late Fri. The high will move ewd on Sat with upper ridging aloft in response to lee side low pressure that will track from WY into MN and eventually Ontario through Sun. The tail end of its upper trough may then bring scattered showers and storms to srn WI for Sunday. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 950 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Some sprinkles to light rain have been reported at KSBM out of an IFR to MVFR cloud deck behind a southward sinking backdoor cold front. These areas of sprinkles and light rain are mainly confined to the lakeshore north of KMKE at this time, and are anticipated to sink southward and dissipate over the next few hours. Sprinkles/low ceilings may make it as far south as KMKE, with less confidence this activity makes it farther south toward KRAC and KENW. Clouds should remain mainly VFR away from this pocket of rain/low level moisture Otherwise, north winds will remain light to moderate out of the north overnight with skies gradually clearing by dawn on Monday. VFR should persist tomorrow, with some modest breeziness to 15 knots continuing into the afternoon. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 302 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Breezy west winds this afternoon will become north to northeast as a trough and back door cold front advances south down the lake. The breezy winds are due to the tighter pressure gradient between high pressure centered in the far Northern Plains and low pressure center just east of James Bay. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect due to the breezy winds through this afternoon. The high and low pressure systems will shift eastward overtime Monday, which will result in diminishing winds. As the high pressure begins to move overhead Monday night into Tuesday light and variable winds are expected. Southerly winds will pick up behind the high pressure system Tuesday into Wednesday. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee