Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
745 FXUS63 KMKX 291958 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally small chances for a shower or thunderstorm to develop across northern and eastern parts of the area along the cold front until early this evening. - River flooding and high water levels remain elevated into next week. Additional rises will be possible with any heavier rainfall. - A moderate swim risk is expected for the Lake Michigan beaches in Racine County tonight into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: The main cold front is still pushing southeast through eastern and southern Wisconsin, with some showers and thunderstorms well to the north northeast of the area. The influence of the 500 mb shortwave trough is helping those showers and storms develop. There is just the cold front providing upward vertical motion over the area, so it may be tougher to get a shower and/or thunderstorm to develop. There may be 1000 J/kg or more of mean layer CAPE with around 45 to 50 knots of deep layer bulk shear, capped somewhat by the warm low levels. Could see gusty winds and small hail with a stronger storm, if they can form. CAMs suggest that any activity would be isolated to widely scattered, and may be limited to northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Will continue to mention smaller PoPs for this potential until early this evening, highest toward the northeastern parts of the area. Gusty northwest to north winds behind the cold front tonight into Sunday will bring cold air advection and cooler and less humid air into the area. Skies should gradually clear out by later tonight, with some diurnal cumulus clouds possible Sunday afternoon. High pressure will move across the area Sunday night, and provide good radiational cooling conditions. Lows tonight around 50 or in the lower 50s are expected, with lows Sunday night into the upper 40s inland. There is a moderate swim risk for the Lake Michigan beaches in Racine County tonight into Sunday. Breaking waves and currents are expected. Stay away from dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls and river outlets. Always have a flotation device with you in the water. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Monday through Saturday: High pressure will move east of the region on Monday and Monday night, bringing another nice day. Models and ensembles continues to show warm air advection and a low level jet pushing moisture into the region for later Monday night into Tuesday evening. A cold front then shifts through later Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This should bring a round of showers and mainly elevated thunderstorms. Too early to say if strong to severe storms would occur, though lingering clouds may limit surface heating and instability. Precipitable water values again reach to around or over 2.00 inches, so locally heavy rainfall may be possible. May get a break Wednesday, before another period of on and off showers and storms moves in for Independence Day and Friday. Too early to say how much of this activity may occur, but ensembles continue to show a relatively wet period during this time. Ensembles suggest high temperatures trend back into the 80s by later next week. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Scattered to broken ceilings have mixed to VFR category across the area. Westerly winds with gusts to around 15 knots are expected as well, veering northwesterly later this afternoon and early this evening, as the main cold front moves through. May see a shower or thunderstorm develop with the frontal passage until early evening, though uncertain if this will occur. Sheboygan would have the better chances of seeing any activity, but will not mention in TAFs at this time. Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight, becoming north Sunday and remaining gusty. Winds should shift northeast for terminals near Lake Michigan by Sunday afternoon, with some gusts to 15 knots or so. May see some diurnal cumulus clouds develop Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds should occur Sunday night, as high pressure moves across the area. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A cold front will across Lake Michigan into this evening, causing winds to shift northwest. Gusty northwest to north winds are then expected tonight into Sunday. These winds will weaken Sunday night into Monday, and generally become east, as high pressure around 30.3 inches builds in from the Northern Plains. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into the middle morning hours on Sunday, for the gusty northwest to north winds. Waves should remain in the 2 to 4 foot range. The high will move east of the region Monday night, with increasing southeast to south winds developing over the lake. These winds may linger into Tuesday night, before a cold front moves east across the region. Small Craft Advisory level winds and waves may occur Tuesday into Tuesday night. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM Saturday to 9 AM Sunday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee