401
FXUS62 KMLB 221409
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning
storms developing along a convergent line over the local Atlantic
which extends from an area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the
Georgia and northeast Florida coasts. Current temperatures are in
the upper 70s to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
Showers and lighting storms are expected to increase (PoPs
~50-70%) in coverage into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west coast sea
breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The main hazards
associated with lighting storms are expected to be wind gusts up
to 30mph, locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short period of time),
and frequent lightning strikes. A Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall exists over east central Florida today to the north of
the Treasure Coast where 1-3" in a short period of time has the
potential to result in minor flooding (5% risk), especially over
areas that have recently received heavy rainfall. East to
southeast winds are forecast to increase this afternoon as the sea
breeze moves inland at around 10mph with gusts to 20mph.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values
in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to
partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR prevailing outside of convection. Light south to southeast
winds developing after sunrise become onshore around 10 kts as the
east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland this afternoon.
VCTS at all terminals ahead of and along the sea breeze. VCTS
through 03Z across the northern terminals while transitioning to
VCSH overnight at the coastal terminals. Will continue to monitor
trends to see if a mention of VCSH will be needed at the northern
terminals tonight. Winds become light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a
southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14
knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge
axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a
weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more
offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be
able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping
rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern
next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-
Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  91  75 /  60  50  70  30
MCO  92  75  91  75 /  70  50  70  30
MLB  89  75  89  75 /  50  30  60  30
VRB  90  75  90  74 /  50  30  50  30
LEE  93  76  92  76 /  70  60  70  30
SFB  92  75  92  75 /  60  50  70  30
ORL  92  76  92  76 /  70  50  70  30
FPR  90  74  90  73 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Law