560
FXUS62 KMLB 161404
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1004 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Temperatures are steadily warming into the 80s this morning, on
the way to highs in the upper 80s (coast) to low/mid 90s (inland).
A low to mid level cloud deck from Lake Okeechobee to coastal
Stuart County has produced light radar returns over the last hour,
warranting a 15-20 PoP across those far southern locations
through late morning. Depending on how long clouds last down
south, temperatures could stay a degree or so cooler than
expected. Otherwise, an inland-moving sea breeze this afternoon
will prompt isolated showers and a storm or two to form, mainly
from the Orlando metro area westward. Rain and lightning chances
remain low but non-zero, with the highest chance (30-40 PoP)
situated from Leesburg to the Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee.
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds
will become east-northeast this morning and increase to 5-10 KT.
Due to deep easterly flow and drier air filtering in, SHRA/TSRA
looks to favor west Florida. Thus, have maintained VCSH for
interior sites starting at 20Z for any westward moving convection
that forms along the sea breeze. Greatest potential for any
SHRA/VCTS will be across the western interior. Have not included
any TEMPOs as timing and coverage remain uncertain. Northeast
winds will become light after sun down before increasing to
10-13KT by early Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient continues across the
local waters early this morning with L/V winds under 10 kts.
However, an NE/ENE flow will develop with speeds increasing to
8-13 kts by afternoon. ERLY winds will increase tonight to 12-17
kts areawide as the pgrad begins to tighten. Seas 2-3 ft, but
begin to build later tonight up to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream.

Mon-Thu...The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds
winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu
with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which
does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it
ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon
and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up
to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps
up to 12 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach
14 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least Cautionary
Statements next week will turn into Small Craft Advisories, and
perhaps some "tropical" wording mixed in by around mid-week
should the aforementioned low develop. Shower and isolated
lightning storm chances will go up by mid-week across the local
waters as moisture values increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  77  88  76 /  10  20  30  20
MCO  91  75  88  75 /  30  10  30  20
MLB  88  77  88  77 /  20  20  30  30
VRB  89  76  88  76 /  20  20  30  30
LEE  92  76  91  75 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  91  75  89  75 /  20  10  30  20
ORL  91  76  89  75 /  20  10  30  20
FPR  88  76  87  76 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson