397
FXUS62 KMLB 220930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
530 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Deep tropical moisture through the weekend will spark scattered
  to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms, especially in the
  afternoon and evening hours. There is a Marginal Risk for
  locally excessive rainfall.

- Peak heat indices of 102-107 this weekend.

- Rain chances remain at or above normal next week.

Today...Deep moisture has overspread EC FL with precip water
values 2.0"-2.2". Wind flow has become southerly around
subtropical high over the SW Atlc and remnants of AL92 nearly
stationary over coastal GA. Sea breeze will develop by late
morning and push inland, sparking scattered to numerous showers
and lightning storms just inland from the coast then developing
inland thru the aftn and early evening. Rain chances near 50
percent coast and 60-70 percent inland. The deep moisture combined
with weak steering flow will produce slow moving storms, capable
of producing a quick 1-3 inches in a 60-90 min period with locally
higher amounts possible especially assocd with boundary
collisions. This will likely cause localized flooding and standing
water issues especially where heavy rains have fallen recently.
Dewpoints in the mid 70s will produce peak heat indices 102-107.

Not much change for the upcoming week. Mid level ridging stays in
place across the southern tier of the U.S. while sfc flow becomes
SW to W as ridge axis slips south of the area. This offshore flow
will not be strong so the Atlc sea breeze will be able to form
each day, producing a SE wind off the ocean. Deep moisture with
precip water values of 2+" will support scattered to numerous aftn
storms and into the evening. While this pattern will provide some
needed rain for those who still need/want it, some areas will get
too much. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm with high
dewpoints. Max temps in the lower 90s coast (due to the slightly
delayed sea breeze) and mid 90s inland will produce peak heat
indices 102 to 107. Overnight temperatures will stay in the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a
southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14
knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge
axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a
weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more
offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be
able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping
rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern
next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-
Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VCSH at LEE/DAB early this morning, diminishing around 07/08Z.
Brief MVFR CIGs have been observed at MCO/ISM with low confidence
in MVFR prevailing. However, TEMPOs may be needed. Otherwise,
prevailing VFR is forecast outside of convection. South to
southeast flow becomes onshore into the afternoon with the
development of the east coast sea breeze. VCSH included at the
coastal terminals as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland.
VCTS is mentioned at the inland terminals as the sea breeze moves
westward and coverage increases along a sea breeze collision. Will
reevaluate if thunder is needed along the coast with the next TAF
package issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  91  75 /  60  50  70  30
MCO  92  75  91  75 /  70  50  70  30
MLB  89  75  89  75 /  50  30  60  30
VRB  90  75  90  74 /  50  30  50  30
LEE  93  76  92  76 /  70  60  70  30
SFB  92  75  92  75 /  60  50  70  30
ORL  92  76  92  76 /  70  50  70  30
FPR  90  74  90  73 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law