Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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710 FXUS62 KMLB 270748 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Key Messages... -Summertime pattern of scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms will continue over the next several days. -Remaining hot and humid across the region, with highs in the low to mid 90s each day and peak heat index values around 102-107. Today-Friday...Mid-level trough axis digging slowly across the southeast U.S. gradually fades through late week, with weak quasi- stationary front persisting north of Florida. This keeps the ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic south of the region today and tomorrow. Low level offshore flow will be a tad stronger today out of the W/SW, which may pin the east coast sea breeze closer to the coast, and may not be able to develop at all north of the Cape. Scattered showers and storms will develop through the afternoon ahead of the west coast breeze, with some enhancement in coverage possible with boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze closer to the I-95 corridor. As ridge axis nudges a little farther northward, but still south of the area on Friday, this will weaken low level offshore flow and should favor late day boundary collisions a little farther inland of I-95 tomorrow. Rain chances each day range from 50-60 percent. Some lingering drier air aloft will still favor a few stronger storms each afternoon/early evening, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds to 40-45 mph. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will also be possible in any stronger or slow moving storms. Hot and humid conditions will prevail across the area through late week, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Delayed sea breeze development should even allow coastal sites to reach the mid 90s today. Peak heat index values will reach to around 102-107 each afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with overnight lows in the 70s. Saturday-Sunday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic shifts back northward into the region this weekend, which will lead to a weak S/SW flow on Saturday, becoming S/SE on Sunday. East coast sea breeze will develop early in the afternoon and move gradually inland, with late afternoon/early evening sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions and greater storm coverage favored over the interior into the weekend. Moisture remains high enough, with PW around 2-2.3 inches, for scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms each day. PoPs range from 50 percent along the coast to 60 percent generally west of I-95. Gusty winds, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threats from any stronger storms. Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior, with peak heat index values still around 102-107 through the weekend. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. Monday-Wednesday...Ridge aloft centered over the south-central U.S. early next week will expand eastward across the southeast states and Florida through the middle portion of next week. At the surface, another weak front moves into the southeast U.S., with ridge axis either near or shifting just south of Lake Okeechobee. This will lead to a prevailing low level S/SW flow across the area through this period, which will continue hot and humid conditions and provide enough moisture for at least scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms from early to mid week. PoPs continue around 50- 60 percent each day, with highs continuing in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values look to continue to generally range from around 102-107 for much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today-Tonight...Subtropical ridge axis remains south of the area today, which will lead to a continued W/SW flow through this morning around 10 knots. Winds veer to the S/SE this afternoon and remain around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze forms, but remains pinned toward the coast. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Scattered offshore moving storms are forecast, especially from mid afternoon through early evening. Some may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes as they move off the coast into the nearshore waters. Friday-Monday...Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5- 10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Tranquil conditions persist with predominant southwesterly flow in the boundary layer through the morning hours, even VRB at a few inland sites. A few showers may approach LEE from the Gulf Coast between daybreak and midday (20-30% chance). Otherwise, 40-60% chance for storms after 27/18Z through sunset, focusing the highest coverage near the coastal terminals. TEMPOs were added for coastal sites; running with VC coverage at KMCO due to lesser certainty in thunderstorm coverage. VFR should prevail outside of storms. Sea breeze will try to turn winds SE at MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA after 27/19Z or so. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 96 76 93 76 / 60 20 60 30 MCO 94 76 94 77 / 50 10 60 20 MLB 94 76 92 76 / 60 20 50 30 VRB 94 74 93 75 / 60 20 50 30 LEE 93 77 94 77 / 50 10 60 20 SFB 95 76 94 76 / 60 10 60 20 ORL 94 77 94 78 / 60 10 60 20 FPR 94 74 93 75 / 60 20 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil