017
FXUS62 KMLB 222323
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
723 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Normal diurnal wx pattern this past afternoon-early evening.
Convective activity will gradually wind down thru mid-late
evening. TEMPO MVFR conds invof SCT shra`s/tsra`s. However,
cannot rule out some ISOLD activity over the interior or some
convective activity along the Treasure Coast. Will update with
TEMPO`s as appropriate. S/SE winds will become light/variable this
evening/overnight. Cloud cover will thin thru the night.
Southerly (Sun) morning winds will back ESE/SE with sea breeze
formation and inland movement on Sun. Speeds up to around 10 kts.
Another day of SCT-NMRS convection with focus inland/interior in
the afternoon/evening on Sun.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Currently-Tonight...An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) remains
near the Georgia and northeast Florida coast with a mid/upper
level ridge centered over the Deep South. Local KMLB radar imagery
shows scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms to the south of I-4. However, that will likely change soon
with outflow from previous storms moving north and west of I-4
where scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
are forecast to develop into this evening (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Rain
shower and storm chances are expected to diminish after sunset and
into the overnight hours. Hi-res guidance indicates the potential
for scattered showers and lightning storms to develop along a
convergent line (extending from what`s left of Invest AL92)
overnight into early Sunday over the local Atlantic waters.
Southeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph as the sea breeze
pushes inland into this evening are expected to become light and
variable overnight.

Sunday...An early start to scattered onshore moving showers (PoPs
~ 40-50%) and lightning storms are forecast Sunday morning along
the Treasure Coast. Showers and storms are forecast to develop and
increase in coverage into the afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west coast sea
breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. Southeast winds
will increase into the afternoon with the sea breeze at around
8-12 mph with gusts to 20mph. The main hazards associated with
lightning storms will be wind gusts up to around 30-35mph, locally
heavy rainfall with minor flooding potential of the typical areas
(1-3" in a short period of time), and frequent lightning strikes.
Rain shower and storm chances dwindle after sunset (PoPs
~20-30%). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat
index values in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly
cloudy to partly sunny skies.

Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)...Not much change
for the upcoming week with daily diurnally sea breeze driven
showers and lightning storms expected to develop each afternoon.
Mid level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the
U.S. while sfc flow becomes SW to W as ridge axis slips south of
the area. This offshore flow will not be strong so the Atlc sea
breeze will be able to form each day, producing a SE wind off the
ocean. Deep moisture with precip water values of 2+" will support
scattered to numerous aftn storms and into the evening. While this
pattern will provide some needed rain for those who still
need/want it, some areas will get too much with a minor flooding
potential of typical areas (1-3" in a short period of time). The
main lighting storm hazards will be wind gusts up to 30-35mph,
locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes.
Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm with high dewpoints.
Max temps in the lower 90s near the coast (due to the slightly
delayed sea breeze) and mid 90s inland will produce peak heat
indices 102 to 107. Overnight temperatures will stay in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Currently-Tonight...Invest 92L remains to the north of the local
Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered
lightning storms are forecast over the local Atlantic into Sunday
morning. The main hazards will be wind gusts up to 30-35mph,
moderate to heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. South to
southeast winds at 10-15kts are forecast to decrease to 5-10kts
overnight. Seas are forecast to build to 2-3ft nearshore and up to
4ft offshore.

Sunday-Wednesday (previous discussion)...High pressure centered
offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this
weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the
sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift
south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As
a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to
west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day.
Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances
high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT
today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  92 /  50  70  30  60
MCO  75  90  75  92 /  50  70  30  70
MLB  75  90  74  90 /  40  60  30  60
VRB  75  89  74  90 /  30  60  30  60
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  60  70  30  70
SFB  75  91  75  93 /  50  70  30  70
ORL  76  91  75  92 /  50  70  30  70
FPR  75  89  73  90 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Sedlock