Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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189 FXUS62 KMLB 122030 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Currently-Tonight...Broad area of low pressure, designated Invest 90L, is currently across the I-4 corridor of east central FL. This low will move slowly east-northeast and offshore the FL east coast into tonight. Light to moderate rain persists across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, where around 2 to 4 inches of rain have already fallen, locally up to 5 to 7 inches. This stratiform rain looks to gradually taper off through late afternoon, but still can`t rule out some additional storms or heavier bands of rainfall still developing across this region through this evening. This will continue the potential for flooding issues across this region, especially now that the ground is pretty saturated. Farther north, additional scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast, closer to the low pressure and with any interacting boundaries through late afternoon and evening. Locally heavy to excessive rainfall concerns will still exist across this area as well, with any slow moving storms or repeated round of convection, leading to rainfall amounts up to 1-3 inches and isolated higher amounts over 4 inches possible. Strong gusty winds and lightning strikes will be the main threats from any storms, with any lingering severe threat largely confined to south Florida. Coverage of showers and storms looks to decrease late evening through around midnight. However, lingering rain chances continue overnight and even increase across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County toward daybreak Thursday. It will remain mild and muggy overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Thursday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Finally seeing some better model agreement late week into the beginning of the weekend. Invest 90L, in whatever form it ends up at this point, should be well northeast of east central Florida and continuing to pull away. In it`s wake, the stationary front drops south across central Florida, keeping the deep tropical moisture in place across much of the peninsula and providing a focus for continued high rain chances. Daily PoPs remain 70-90 pct area wide through at least Friday. Currently have 60-80 pct PoPs Saturday, pulled down by uncertainty as the ECM and the GFS begin to diverge again. Additional forecast widespread rainfall amounts Thursday through Sunday morning generally range around 1-3 inches. However, locally heavy to excessive rainfall will still be possible, with WPC maintaining a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday, and then at least a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the area. Other storm threats continue to be occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. Afternoon highs remain mostly at at or below normal in the M-U80s, but will likely see a few more northern spots hitting 90. Sunday-Tuesday...(Previous Discussion) Should finally start to see a change in the pattern, but there continues to be uncertainty in timing. High pressure over the CONUS building into the western Atlantic and over Florida should eventually push the front to our south, and the higher moisture to the south and east. The ECM is faster and a little more aggressive, lowering rain chances as early as Sunday, while the GFS is slower and a little more conservative, keeping higher rain chances in the forecast until Tuesday. Either way, there appears to be enough moisture in moderate onshore flow to continue near normal rain chances into mid next week. Temperatures start to creep back up but still around normal in the U80s-L90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Tonight...Broad low, designated Invest 90L, across the I-4 corridor will shift east-northeast and offshore of the coast tonight. Poor boating conditions will continue offshore of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast waters tonight as south to southwest winds are forecast to remain up to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are forecast to build slightly to 2-4 feet nearshore and up to 3-5 feet offshore. Shower and storm chances will remain high into this evening, with potentially some decreasing coverage near to past midnight. However, there will still be a lingering chance for offshore moving showers and storms, some which could be gusty, mainly south of the Cape late tonight and toward daybreak Thursday. Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Invest 90L departs to the northeast, dropping the stationary front south across the waters in its wake. Winds generally S-SW up to 10-15 kts south of this boundary into Thursday, decreasing to 5-10 knots into Friday. North of the boundary, mainly across the Volusia County waters, winds become northerly 5-10 knots. Light offshore flow on Saturday morning becomes S/SE by the afternoon and then becomes easterly into Sunday as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind speeds remain less than 15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet on Thursday fall to 1-3 ft Friday and into the weekend. High moisture and the frontal boundary will continue high rain and storm chances through at least late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 -RA continues at the Treasure Coast terminals with coverage expanding northward into the afternoon. MVFR CIGs are forecast to develop and generally prevail. TEMPOs for lowering VIS and CIGs in thunderstorms which develop today. Overall coverage of showers and storms diminish from north to south after 0Z. Lingering VCSH included from SFB southward overnight. Winds generally out of the south to southwest through the period. However, winds often variable across the north this afternoon as low pressure tracks across the I- 4 corridor. Winds also variable in vicinity in thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 90 73 89 / 60 80 60 80 MCO 75 88 74 88 / 70 80 60 90 MLB 73 89 73 88 / 70 80 80 90 VRB 73 89 72 88 / 70 80 80 90 LEE 75 90 75 92 / 60 80 50 80 SFB 75 90 74 91 / 70 80 60 80 ORL 75 90 75 90 / 70 80 60 80 FPR 72 89 72 87 / 70 80 80 90 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Law