Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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655 FXUS62 KMLB 240130 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 930 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Back to a more seasonal diurnal pattern that will likely continue into next week. Weak steering flow with ample moisture, daytime heating, and boundary collisions. Primary convective threats continue to be occasional to frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours leading to minor and nuisance flooding locally. Local rainfall totals also between 1-4 inches in some spots. Boundary collisions and deep moisture may keep some ISOLD-WDLY SCT convective activity going into mid- late evening, esp areas not worked over by earlier precip or locations able to recover and destabilize, else mostly dry over land overnight with clouds thinning. Light S/SW winds. Overnight mins in the 70s with conditions humid. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Early initiation to convection across ECFL today, as much of the activity is winding down, but could see some ISOLD convection into mid-late evening as moisture is deep and boundary collisions continue. Mostly dry over ECFL overnight. Expect a similar day on Mon with SCT-NMRS convection as the ECSB ventures inland with eventual collision with its west coast counterpart. Light S/SSW winds this evening/overnight. SW/W winds early on Mon transitioning to onshore as the sea breeze moves inland. Likely will add a VCTS to TAFs for Mon aftn, with TEMPO groups following at a later time as confidence increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Overnight-Monday... South to southeast winds at around 10 to 15kts are forecast diminish into Monday morning at 5 to 10kts before backing southeast into the mid morning and afternoon. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into Monday morning over the local Atlantic with offshore moving showers/storms expected in the evening. The main hazards associated with lightning storms will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up to 35mph. Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft with up to 4 ft over the offshore Volusia county waters tonight. Tuesday-Thursday... Light southwest to west flow develops over the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 93 76 93 / 10 60 30 70 MCO 74 93 76 92 / 20 70 30 70 MLB 74 91 75 91 / 10 50 30 60 VRB 74 90 75 91 / 10 50 20 50 LEE 76 94 77 94 / 20 70 30 70 SFB 75 94 76 94 / 20 70 30 70 ORL 75 93 77 93 / 20 70 30 70 FPR 73 90 74 91 / 10 60 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Sedlock