066
FXUS62 KMLB 291414
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1014 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Early morning (10Z) Cape sounding shows precip water of 2.18" so
quite a moist profile especially in the mid and upper levels.
There is considerable mid and upper cloudiness assocd with this
moisture and is supported by some upper vorticity that will push
S/SW across the area during the day. The sounding also shows some
relatively drier air just above the sfc which should is initially
limiting the development of the diurnal cu field. But this drier
air will mix out with time and a healthy cu field will develop
during the afternoon. Weak pressure gradient producing light and
variable winds and this will allow the east coast sea breeze to
develop by early afternoon and push inland. Convective initiation
is expected just inland from the coast along the sea breeze with
the focus on the interior late in the day assocd with boundary
collisions. The upper support should produce a high coverage of
rain/storms over the interior with a few strong storms. Only
change to the forecast for today was to lower rain chances through
the morning over the Atlc and coastal areas.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Key Messages...

-Higher coverage of showers and storms expected to continue today,
especially inland, with locally heavy rainfall and a few stronger
storms possible.

-Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms forecast Sunday
into next week, with greatest coverage still focused across the
interior.

-Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal this weekend
through next week, with humid conditions leading to peak heat index
values around 102-107 each day.

Today-Tonight...Central Florida will be between a weak area of high
pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and high pressure over the
Atlantic, with ridge axis extending across the area. This will lead
to a light and variable wind flow across the region this morning,
with the east coast sea breeze moving inland through the afternoon
and switching winds onshore. A moist airmass remains in place, with
PW values around 2.0-2.3 inches. While some mid to high cloud cover
may persist into this morning, there should be sufficient daytime
heating for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop into
the afternoon with the inland moving sea breeze boundaries. Greatest
convective coverage will focus across the interior later into the
afternoon where collisions between sea breeze and storm outflow
boundaries are more likely. Have continued high rain chances today,
with PoPs ranging from 60 percent along the coast to 70-80 percent
across the interior.

Steering winds will remain weak today, and out of the N/NW, which
should lead to slower storm motion toward the S/SE. However, with
the weaker steering winds, can`t rule out some variable storm motion
along outflow boundaries that may shift some of this activity
back toward the coast. Deep moisture in place will also increase
the potential for locally heavy rainfall of around 2-4 inches with
any persistent or slow moving storms. Gusty winds to 40- 50 mph
and frequent lightning strikes may also occur with a few stronger
storms. Convection and lingering areas of light to moderate debris
cloud rainfall will gradually diminish into the evening, with
rain chances mostly ending by midnight. However, a weak onshore
flow may be able to transport a few showers or an isolated storm
onshore overnight from the Cape southward.

Highs will be closer to normal today, with values in the upper 80s
to around 90 degrees along the coast and low 90s over the interior.
However, the humid conditions will still lead to heat index values
around 102-107 this afternoon, before storms and increasing cloud
cover lead to some relief from the heat later in the afternoon.
Overnight lows forecast to range from the low to mid 70s.

Sunday-Friday...Atlantic subtropical ridge axis remains across the
area from Sunday into early next week as a weak front moves into the
southeast U.S. and stalls. Weaker and more variable low level winds
continue across the area on Sunday, becoming more southerly into
Monday and Tuesday. Low level winds then begin to veer more onshore
into mid week as high pressure shifts offshore the eastern U.S.
coast, and NHC forecasts show TC Beryl continuing to shift westward
through the Caribbean Sea during this time. Model guidance then
indicates continued west-northwest motion with this system through
late week.

Sea breeze will form each afternoon and move inland, with scattered
showers and storms forecast to develop during the afternoon and
evening hours along and inland of this boundary. However, greatest
rain chances will remain across the interior where boundary
collisions are favored to occur. PoPs on Sunday range from 40-50
percent along the coast to up to 60-70 percent across the interior,
and then fall to 40-50 percent along the coast and 50-60 percent
inland early to middle portion of next week. Some drier air building
into the area later into the week, and strengthening onshore flow
may then lead to a continued decrease in storm coverage, and have
rain chances falling to 40-50 percent across the area into Thursday
and Friday. Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms each day,
with main threats being lightning strikes, strong gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall.

Highs will still be near normal into Sunday, in the upper 80s to low
90s, and then in the low 90s early this week. Temps then continue to
increase toward mid to late week as ridge aloft extends eastward
across the area, with highs in the mid 90s forecast across portions
of the interior, mainly near to northwest of I-4. Humid conditions
will continue to produce peak heat index values during the
afternoon around 102-107. Warm and muggy conditions continue
during the overnight hours, with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

IMPACTS:

- Early morning fog reducing VIS to IFR/MVFR through 12Z at DAB.

- Numerous afternoon and evening storms expected; Gusty winds to
  35 KT, VIS restrictions to IFR & frequent lightning beneath
  storm cores.

As suspected, light winds and saturation was enough to sprout a
few patches of fog this morning, mostly up around DAB. VFR
elsewhere, and VFR prevails at all sites through early afternoon.
Thereafter, 60-80% storm chances for Greater Orlando terminals
from 18Z-23Z, lessening to 40-60% for coastal terminals. At MCO,
storms appear most likely in the 19Z-22Z timeframe. There is a
~ 20% chance for wind gusts to around 35 KT near the strongest
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 456 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions expected with light
and somewhat variable winds this morning, becoming onshore this
afternoon around 5-10 knots as east coast sea breeze forms and
moves inland. Winds then veer southerly into tonight and remain
relatively light. Seas 1-2 feet.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop into the
afternoon, mainly inland, but still can`t rule out some of this
activity shifting back toward the coast and offshore. Additional
isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop over the
waters, especially across the gulf stream waters.

Sunday-Wednesday...Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain
across the area through late weekend into early next week,
maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable winds
expected again into Sunday morning, but then will become more
southerly into early this week. Winds will become onshore each
afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds 5-10 knots
on Sunday and increasing to around 10 knots Monday through
Wednesday. Seas around 2 feet, may increase to 2-3 feet by mid
week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be
possible over the coastal waters through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  75 /  70  40  50  20
MCO  92  76  91  74 /  80  40  60  20
MLB  89  75  89  75 /  60  30  40  20
VRB  89  75  89  74 /  60  30  50  20
LEE  92  77  92  76 /  80  40  60  30
SFB  92  75  92  75 /  80  40  60  20
ORL  92  76  92  76 /  80  40  60  20
FPR  90  75  89  74 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Heil