Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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610 FXUS62 KMLB 190037 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 837 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The East winds will decrease some over the interior this evening and overnight but remain breezy/gusty along the coast with isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore and well inland. No lightning has occurred over land or the adjacent coastal waters but a couple strikes have been noted well offshore (beyond 60nm) so will keep the slight chance for thunder over the marine zones as well as coastal counties overnight. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 840 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The gusty east winds will subside over the interior terminals tonight but remain 10-15 knots while coastal terminals remain at 15-25 knots. Fast moving SHRA will push onshore and well inland so will carry VCSH. On Wed, similar conds as today are forecast with East winds 15-25 knots, gusting near 30 knots all terminals with SCT SHRA pushing onshore. Will keep CIGs VFR but ocnl MVFR CIGs are likely mainly assocd with passing SHRA. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Tonight...Breezy to gusty conditions are present across much of the area this afternoon, especially around the Orlando metro and along the immediate coast. RAP analysis shows a tightening pressure gradient over the FL Peninsula, reflected in some of the higher wind gusts in the last couple of hours. Observing sites around Cape Canaveral to Cocoa Beach are reaching gusts of 35 mph and briefly higher at times. A weak disturbance is moving onshore just south of Melbourne and providing the focus for some heavier shower activity. So far, no lightning has been detected in or around these showers, but it cannot be entirely ruled out along the coast or just offshore through the evening. Locally higher gusts to 40 mph at the coast may also accompany this feature as it moves ashore. Wind gusts will persist tonight along the coast, reaching 25 to 30 mph at times, but decreasing to 15-20 mph inland. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue with a very low chance for lightning at the coast and over the Atlantic waters. Temperatures will gradually fall into the 70s, staying slightly warmer east of I-95. Wednesday-Thursday...Mid level ridging remains in place through tomorrow but begins to flatten as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the southeast U.S. This is the same feature highlighted by NHC for a low chance of developing tropical characteristics in the next few days. At this point, model guidance does very little with it, other than to provide another wave of moisture and associated shower activity somewhere along the FL/GA or Carolina coastline Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Models remain in some disagreement with regard to the placement and timing of this feature, but an increasing trend to high chance/likely PoPs is forecast Wednesday into Thursday. Brief, localized heavy rainfall is possible as a result, though the QPF remains near 1.20" or less for most locations through Friday morning. Temperatures each day will remain near to slightly below normal with overnight lows ranging through the 70s. A couple of warm low records may occur at coastal sites due to the persistent onshore flow. Gusty winds are forecast to continue, reaching 25-30+ mph at times, especially along the immediate coast. Saturday-Monday (modified previous)...Upper level high pressure centered across the Deep South on Saturday will slowly shift westward through the time, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will build southwestward over the Florida peninsula through the period. Locally, winds will generally be around 10 mph, with E/SE winds forecast on Saturday before becoming S/SE on Sunday and Monday. The east coast sea breeze is expected to form each afternoon and push inland. Rain chances will remain elevated through early week, with rain chances persisting into early next week. For now, kept likely PoPs out of the forecast due to variability in model solutions. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the immediate coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior each day. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions will continue as easterly winds 20-25 kt and occasional gusts of 30-35 kt. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the adjacent waters through at least Thursday evening. Seas will continue to build, reaching 7-8 ft offshore north of Sebastian Inlet tonight and 6-7 ft nearshore. A stream of isolated to scattered showers is also forecast, with a very low probability of lightning strikes. Some of these showers could mix down locally higher wind gusts at times. Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous)...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through late week as a weak trough approaches the Florida peninsula and southeast U.S. coast. Onshore flow will persist with winds generally 15-20 KT in the nearshore waters and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters through Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10-15 KT by late week and into the weekend. Seas 6-8ft on Wednesday will increase to 7-9 ft on Thursday, before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Atlantic waters on Wednesday, and has been extended in time through at least Thursday evening. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated lightning storms will be possible each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 87 76 87 / 30 60 50 60 MCO 76 88 76 88 / 30 50 30 50 MLB 77 87 77 87 / 50 50 50 60 VRB 76 88 76 87 / 50 50 50 60 LEE 77 90 76 91 / 30 40 20 40 SFB 75 89 75 89 / 30 50 40 50 ORL 76 89 76 89 / 30 50 30 50 FPR 76 87 76 87 / 40 50 50 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly