091
FXUS62 KMLB 180535
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions prevailing through the period, though
guidance suggests MVFR CIGs will be possible Tuesday evening.
Elevated winds overnight will be breezy to windy Tuesday morning
into the afternoon hours, with sustained winds up to around 15-20kts
and gusts up to 25-30kts. Showers will occasionally drift onshore
overnight tonight, with VCSH along the Treasure Coast. Then,
coverage of showers is forecast to increase Tuesday afternoon,
with VCSH area-wide into Tuesday night. Will need to monitor the
need for any TEMPOs or SHRA. Drier air in the mid and upper levels
should limit the TS threat, so have not included VCTS at this
time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Deep easterly flow around high pressure off the New England coast
will keep min temps quite mild, holding in the upper 70s/near 80
at the coast and mid 70s interior tonight. Isolated showers will
push onshore and could spread well inland before dissipating but
coverage will be low. Very dry mid levels will prevent deep
convection (thunder).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions are expected as
persistent onshore flow works to build seas up to 5 ft. Wind
speeds of 15-20 kt are expected with gusts 20-25 kt. Small craft
should exercise caution over the local waters. In addition,
isolated showers will continue to stream from east to west over
the Atlantic through daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous...Poor to hazardous boating
conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the
Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. A Small
Craft Advisory begins for the offshore waters late Tuesday morning
and will likely expand to the rest of the local waters through
midweek. Onshore flow will persist , with winds generally 15-20 KT
through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the
offshore waters Wednesday and Thursday. Winds decrease to around
10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft
on Wednesday, and 7-9 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside
on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. Increasing rain and storm
chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and
scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will
decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and
lightning storms remaining possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  87  75 /  30  30  50  50
MCO  88  76  88  76 /  30  40  50  30
MLB  87  77  87  77 /  50  50  60  60
VRB  87  76  88  76 /  50  50  60  60
LEE  91  77  91  75 /  20  20  40  20
SFB  88  75  89  75 /  30  40  50  40
ORL  89  76  89  76 /  30  40  50  30
FPR  87  76  87  75 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy