545
FXUS62 KMLB 081409
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE, CLIMATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Update...A bit of an earlier start to showers and thunderstorms
mainly across Southwest FL, although earlier a few cells in Palm
Beach County were drifting closer to Martin County, prompting an
update to PoPs, which have since dissipated. This early morning
activity coincides with the presence of very moist air, with PW
values surging over 2.00" south of Lake Okeechobee. A tight gradient
is in place across the state, however, with values falling
significantly just across the FL/GA border to near 0.70". This drier
air is forecast to filter southward today which will aim to curb
rain chances for areas north of I-4 this afternoon, but will also
aid in temperatures climbing to near record values for these areas.
Have maintained PoPs of 30% for the north, increasing southward to
60% in the vicinity of Lake O, due to the adequate moisture and also
sea/lake breeze interactions today. Temps at 500 mb warmed 3 degrees
to -6C compared to this time yesterday, suggesting that storms today
may not be as strong, although the potential for gusty winds is
still present with DCAPE of 1000J/kg. Frequent lightning strikes,
heavy rain and gusty winds will be the threats this afternoon,
mainly for the Kissimmee River basin towards Jupiter Inlet.

Nearly all climate sites have record highs at risk today, especially
for Orlando, Sanford and Leesburg, where the cooling effects of the
sea breeze and afternoon storms may escape. Temps will approach very
near to 100 degrees across the interior, with heat index readings
soaring towards 105-107F. Therefore, today`s HeatRisk is moderate to
major, meaning this level of heat can affect anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. If outdoors, take
frequent breaks from the sun in shaded or air conditioned spaces and
remain well hydrated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High Temperature Records for June 8

DAB   99 1985
LEE   96 1985
SFB   97 1985
MCO   99 1985
MLB   97 1980
VRB   95 1995
FPR   95 1949

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of convection through the TAF
package. TSRA/SHRA has developed a little ahead of schedule in
SOFL, and will need to monitor if this activity pushes north into
ECFL. Short-fused AMDs for VC timing and possibly even TEMPOs may
be needed. Added VCSH to KSUA at the start of the 12Z TAF and
continue a northward progression of VCTS starting 16Z at KSUA and
20Z at KMLB. VCTS at inland terminals ~21Z. Clearing out by 03Z.
All that said, TSRA should be ISO to SCT at best so not committing
to TEMPOs with the 12Z package. Light SW-W winds will once again
favor the WCSB, reaching KLEE ~19Z and KISM/KMCO/KSFB ~22Z,
increasing W winds to 10-15 kts. Delayed ECSB reaches the coastal
terminals between 16Z-20Z, earlier to the south and later to the
north, shifting winds ESE- SE 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to
20 kts. ECSB/WCSB collision expected just west of the I-95
corridor ~22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions outside of isolated
storms are forecast with 1-2 ft seas and early W winds backing SE
in the afternoon. Speeds increase to around 15 kt this evening
and tonight before decreasing by sunrise Sunday. Isolated showers
and lightning storms will tend to be focused from Cape Canaveral
southward, where slightly greater moisture is present.

Sunday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with
winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening
behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are
expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning
storms increases from Monday-Tuesday onward. Seas 2-3 ft, except
where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Above normal temperatures through the weekend and into early next
week, along with persistent drought conditions and lower
relative humidity values each afternoon, will lead to fire
sensitive or near critical conditions. Fire concerns will be
locally enhanced by the daily afternoon sea breezes and isolated
to scattered lightning strikes. Moisture increases next week,
leading to greater coverage of rain and lightning storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  75  97  74 /  30  20  20  10
MCO  97  77  96  76 /  50  20  30  10
MLB  93  76  93  76 /  50  30  40  20
VRB  94  74  93  76 /  50  30  40  20
LEE  97  76  97  76 /  40  10  20   0
SFB  97  76  97  76 /  50  20  30   0
ORL  97  77  96  77 /  50  20  30   0
FPR  93  74  93  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley