546
FXUS62 KMLB 161902
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
302 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Now-Tonight...The east coast sea breeze continues to move inland
this afternoon, providing a focus for scattered rain showers and
isolated lightning storms. Where moderate to heavy downpours have
occurred, temperatures have briefly dropped 10 to 15 degrees.
Similar convective activity is forecast to drift west of Orlando
to Leesburg by late this afternoon and early in the evening,
pushing west of the forecast area around sunset. Gusty winds,
brief downpours, and occasional lightning strikes will be the
primary concerns. As sky conditions gradually clear out tonight,
temperatures will settle into the low to mid 70s. Low PoPs (15-20
percent) are reintroduced toward daybreak Monday along the
Treasure Coast, as isolated marine showers develop and move toward
the east coast.

Monday-Tuesday...A mid level high is expected to remain centered
over the Carolinas Monday with surface high pressure beginning to
slip seaward through the day. Breezy onshore flow is forecast to
increase during the morning hours, reaching 15 mph (gusts 20 to 25
mph) inland with slightly higher sustained winds at the coast
(around 20 mph, gusts 25 to 30 mph). Monday features the lowest
rain chances of the week, due in part to an overall lack of
moisture and forcing. Adjustments to the precip forecast may be
needed if early morning marine showers linger a little later into
the morning. Otherwise, a good amount of dry time and sunshine
will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s
(far interior). Similar temperatures are expected Tuesday with an
increase in moisture along the coast and over the southern half
of the forecast area. This will result in slightly greater shower
and isolated storm activity, maximized during the afternoon hours.
Despite this, QPF remains generally less than 0.10-0.20". Breezy
conditions are once again expected, with gusts reaching up to 30
mph over a larger portion of east central Florida Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday-Saturday...Model solutions quickly diverge from mid to
late week, though many are in agreement on an increase in
available moisture over the FL Peninsula. Daytime highs will
remain similar, in the upper 80s/low 90s, eventually trending
upward late week into the weekend. Increasing rain and storm
chances are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, though exact timing
and placement of the highest QPF remains considerably uncertain.
Instances of heavy rainfall are possible if a surface trough,
forecast to approach the eastern U.S., reaches Florida by
Thursday. Through the extended period, onshore flow of at least
10-15 mph will persist with breezy conditions at the coast. Surf
conditions will also deteriorate through the week, due to onshore
winds and building ocean swells. This will increase the risk of
life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, along with rough
surf.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Tonight...Easterly flow 10-15 kt continue, increasing toward
daybreak Monday to 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are possible late
tonight over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet. Seas
2-3 ft, building to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream early Monday
morning.

Monday-Thursday (modified previous)...Onshore winds winds
increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu with
the approach of a surface trough over the western Atlc, which
does have some potential to organize by midweek as it ventures
quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon and up
to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up to 7 ft
offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps up to 10
ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach 12 ft
offshore by early Thu. At the very least, Cautionary Statements
will turn into Small Craft Advisories later this week. Shower and
isolated lightning storm chances will go up by midweek across the
local waters as moisture increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, but a couple inland
terminals could see MVFR-IFR VIS impacts from TSRA/SHRA for an
hour or so. SHRA over performed a little along the ECSB,
developing ISO-SCT at 17Z, a little earlier and higher coverage
than expected and prompting AMDs for VCSH/VCTS at inland
terminals, and a TEMPO for KSFB. Activity will press west through
the afternoon, with the bulk of the convection west of the
terminals by 22Z. VFR conditions prevail after 02Z. Winds Erly
~10 kts at coastal terminals and 10-15G20 kts at inland terminals
settle to 5-10 kts overnight, then pick back up to ~15G20-25 kts
at coastal terminals by late Monday morning, and 10-15G20 kts at
inland terminals in the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  88  76  87 /  20  20  20  30
MCO  75  88  75  87 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  77  88  77  88 /  10  20  10  40
VRB  76  88  76  87 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  76  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
SFB  75  89  75  89 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  76  89  76  89 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  76  87  76  87 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley