191
FXUS62 KMLB 250305
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Storm Helene continues to organize and strengthen over
the NW Caribbean this evening, and will continue to move toward
the W/NW toward the Yucatan channel overnight. Low level winds are
already increasing between this system and the high pressure
ridge along the eastern U.S. seaboard, with 925mb winds around
15-20 knots. This will keep winds somewhat elevated overnight,
with speeds around 6-11 mph along mainland areas, and breezy
conditions still possible along the barrier islands, south of the
Cape. Moisture will continue to gradually build northward into
tonight and this will allow isolated to scattered showers to push
onshore, initially along the Treasure Coast this evening and then
even farther north across Brevard County overnight. A few storms
may also develop over the coastal waters and push onshore, mainly
along the Treasure Coast.

In terms of tropical headlines for Helene, with the 11PM update,
all of east central Florida is now under a Tropical Storm Warning,
including the adjacent Atlantic waters. The wind field will be
exceptionally large, especially on the eastern side of Helene as
it lifts northward and intensifies over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday night through Thursday. Therefore, the potential for
frequent gusts to tropical storm force exists across much of the
area, mainly on Thursday into Thursday evening. For additional
hazard details related to Helene across east central Florida,
please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement issued by NWS
Melbourne.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 813 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Mostly VFR conditions into tonight. Isolated showers will continue
to push onshore along the southern Treasure Coast this evening.
The potential for these onshore moving showers will then expand
northward overnight through areas near to south of the Cape, as
moisture gradually builds across the area and elevated low level
easterly flow continues. Can`t rule out an isolated storm or two
pushing onshore as well across this region, mainly along the
Treasure Coast.

Moisture will continue build northward across the region
Wednesday, with low level winds increasing as Tropical Storm
Helene moves into the Yucatan channel and is forecast to
strengthen to a hurricane. Increasing bands of showers and storms
are forecast across the area through the day. Greatest coverage
of this activity will be south of Orlando in the morning and then
expanding northward across the rest of east central Florida into
the afternoon. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any
showers and storms, and may begin to see some predominant MVFR
cigs build into the southern half of east central FL later into
the afternoon. Have VCSH eventually transitioning to VCTS into the
afternoon for now, but will likely need to add some tempo groups
for TSRA in later TAFs when timing confidence improves.

E/SE winds will be around 6-11 knots (highest along the coast),
with speeds increasing during the daytime on Wednesday and
becoming breezy around 12-17 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Afternoon-Tonight...Moderate E/ESE flow near 15 knots will produce
choppy seas of 3 to 4 feet with winds increasing 14-18 kts tonight.
Will likely need a Caution headline tonight south of the Cape for
winds increasing to 15-20 kts and seas building up to 6 ft. Lower
coverage of showers into tonight (20-40pct southward from near
Melbourne Beach and includes ISOLD lightning storm mention) as
drier air filters down from the north. Seas building 4-5 ft near
shore.

Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...

Wed-Sat...Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to continue to
strengthen over the northwest Caribbean, moving north into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast
to deteriorate further Wed into Thu as southeast winds increase 20
kts Wed and 25-30 kts Wed overnight, strengthening further
30-35kts (potentially 40kts for some) during Thu with seas
building 7-10 ft (peaking at 12 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard
Thu aftn/night). At least Small Craft Advisories look likely by
Wed aftn but it is possible Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
will become necessary for much of the Atlc coastal waters. Deep
moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers
and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW
Fri and gradually decreasing into Fri night with seas subsiding
below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but
remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow turns SW on Sat and decreases
below 15 kts and this will allow seas to gradually fall below 5 ft
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  89  77  88 /   0  40  70  90
MCO  76  90  77  88 /  10  60  70  90
MLB  79  89  78  90 /  30  60  70  80
VRB  78  89  77  91 /  30  70  80  70
LEE  76  90  76  86 /   0  50  70  90
SFB  76  89  77  87 /   0  50  70  90
ORL  77  90  77  88 /   0  60  70  90
FPR  78  89  77  91 /  30  70  80  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich