831
FXUS62 KMLB 160543
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
143 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds
will become northeast by early morning and increase to 5-10 KT.
Due to deep easterly flow and drier air filtering in, SHRA/TSRA
looks to favor west Florida. Thus, have maintained VCSH for
interior sites starting at 20Z for any westward moving convection
that forms along the sea breeze. Northeast winds will become light
after sun down.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Convection was focused across northern and central sections today
from Brevard and Osceola northward. Boundary collisions produced
the heaviest rains stretching from north Brevard, Orange and into
central Lake county. The highest rainfall totals occurred near
Windemere where a handful of rain gages reported 4-5 inches. Wind
fields were weak and lapse rates were unimpressive so downburst
winds were not very strong. Peak wind gust was 40 mph at LEE.
Only isolated showers remain over the interior and these will
diminish soon resulting in a quiet overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Currently-Tonight... High pressure will build to the north of
Florida into the overnight. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and
lightning storms capable of gusty winds are forecast over the
local Atlantic into the early morning hours. West to southwest
winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer northeast into Sunday
morning.

Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing
into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing
8-14 kts on Sun, 11-17 kts Sun night, and 15-22 kts Mon-Wed as
the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun evening, 3-4 ft
Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed night. ISOLD-
SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into Wed ramping
up to likely Wed night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  76  88  76 /  30  10  40  20
MCO  91  75  88  75 /  40  20  30  20
MLB  88  77  88  77 /  30  20  40  30
VRB  88  76  88  76 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  92  76  91  75 /  40  10  30  10
SFB  91  75  89  75 /  30  10  30  20
ORL  91  75  89  75 /  40  20  30  20
FPR  88  76  87  76 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Watson