771
FXUS62 KMLB 250513
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
113 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

MCO IMPACTS:
- Gusty crosswinds for N/S ops (ESE G20-25 KT) beginning ~ 25/15Z.
- 60% chance of showers/storms after 25/18Z with occasional
  IFR/MVFR restrictions.
- Helene to bring significant aviation impacts just beyond the
  TAF period (mainly Thursday).

Deteriorating conditions through the TAF period due to TS
Helene`s approach. For MCO and Orlando area, shower/storm chances
ramp up in the afternoon hours and continue well beyond this TAF
package. From MLB south to SUA, showers increase overnight and
continue into the morning with TS potential increasing after
around 14Z. TIX/DAB will see increasing RA/TS after 18Z.

East winds 5-15 KT through daybreak, then ESE 10-20 KT G20-25 KT
from late morning onward. VFR, except in/near showers and storms
where dips to MVFR/IFR expected.

For planning purposes: winds will continue to strengthen into
Thursday as Helene moves through the NE Gulf, along with periods
of rain/storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Storm Helene continues to organize and strengthen over
the NW Caribbean this evening, and will continue to move toward
the W/NW toward the Yucatan channel overnight. Low level winds are
already increasing between this system and the high pressure
ridge along the eastern U.S. seaboard, with 925mb winds around
15-20 knots. This will keep winds somewhat elevated overnight,
with speeds around 6-11 mph along mainland areas, and breezy
conditions still possible along the barrier islands, south of the
Cape. Moisture will continue to gradually build northward into
tonight and this will allow isolated to scattered showers to push
onshore, initially along the Treasure Coast this evening and then
even farther north across Brevard County overnight. A few storms
may also develop over the coastal waters and push onshore, mainly
along the Treasure Coast.

In terms of tropical headlines for Helene, with the 11PM update,
all of east central Florida is now under a Tropical Storm Warning,
including the adjacent Atlantic waters. The wind field will be
exceptionally large, especially on the eastern side of Helene as
it lifts northward and intensifies over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday night through Thursday. Therefore, the potential for
frequent gusts to tropical storm force exists across much of the
area, mainly on Thursday into Thursday evening. For additional
hazard details related to Helene across east central Florida,
please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement issued by NWS
Melbourne.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Afternoon-Tonight...Moderate E/ESE flow near 15 knots will produce
choppy seas of 3 to 4 feet with winds increasing 14-18 kts tonight.
Will likely need a Caution headline tonight south of the Cape for
winds increasing to 15-20 kts and seas building up to 6 ft. Lower
coverage of showers into tonight (20-40pct southward from near
Melbourne Beach and includes ISOLD lightning storm mention) as
drier air filters down from the north. Seas building 4-5 ft near
shore.

Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...

Wed-Sat...Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to continue to
strengthen over the northwest Caribbean, moving north into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast
to deteriorate further Wed into Thu as southeast winds increase 20
kts Wed and 25-30 kts Wed overnight, strengthening further
30-35kts (potentially 40kts for some) during Thu with seas
building 7-10 ft (peaking at 12 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard
Thu aftn/night). At least Small Craft Advisories look likely by
Wed aftn but it is possible Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
will become necessary for much of the Atlc coastal waters. Deep
moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers
and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW
Fri and gradually decreasing into Fri night with seas subsiding
below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but
remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow turns SW on Sat and decreases
below 15 kts and this will allow seas to gradually fall below 5 ft
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  77  89  78 /  50  70  90  60
MCO  90  77  89  79 /  60  70  90  60
MLB  88  79  90  79 /  60  70  80  70
VRB  88  78  91  78 /  70  70  80  70
LEE  90  77  87  78 /  60  70  90  60
SFB  89  77  88  79 /  60  70  90  60
ORL  90  78  89  80 /  60  70  90  60
FPR  88  78  90  78 /  60  70  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil