Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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149 FXUS62 KMLB 171957 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 357 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tonight...Brief downpours are quickly moving from east to west across the forecast area this afternoon, with a couple of locations picking up 0.25" or more in one hour. Activity is very isolated in nature so not everyone will end up seeing rain, or measurable rain at that. High clouds continue to migrate over the peninsula with low level clouds pushing onshore from the Atlantic. The midday XMR sounding noted moistening of the lowest 1 km, which is supporting the shallow, isolated showers. Temperatures ranging from the 80s and low 90s this afternoon will gradually fall into the 70s tonight, as a very low chance for onshore- moving showers continues. Easterly winds are also gusty and will remain elevated along the coast overnight, slowing to around 10 mph or less inland. Tuesday-Wednesday...Onshore flow persists through midweek as upper level high pressure begins to shift north and gradually expands westward over the TN Valley. Breezy conditions are expected through the day with gusts pushing 30 mph at the coast during the afternoon and evening. Model guidance depicts waves of greater atmospheric moisture traversing the state, acting to elevate rain chances. The primary focus for repeated rounds of showers and isolated lightning storms will be nearer to the coast each day. Lower rain chances (20-40 percent) remain along and north of I-4. Generally, QPF through Thursday morning remains anywhere from a few hundredths (inland) to 0.75" of rainfall along the coast. Isolated amounts to 1.5"-2.0" cannot be ruled out where rounds of heavy downpours move over the same location. Afternoon highs remain seasonable in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees (warmer inland). Overnight lows range from the low 70s inland to the mid and upper 70s along the coast. Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Surface high pressure extending over the Florida peninsula will retreat northward by late week. Most models are in agreement that an increase in moisture across Florida will occur through late week as a surface trough is forecast to move WNW toward the southeast U.S. coast by Friday. Locally, increasing rain and storm chances are forecast Thursday with 60 percent PoP areawide. However, exact timing and placement of the highest QPF remains uncertain. Episodes of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible late week if attendant moisture from the surface trough reaches Florida. Breezy onshore flow will persist with wind speeds generally around 15 mph (up to 20 mph along the coast) late week with decreasing wind speeds into the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through late week, with mid 90s possible into the weekend, mainly across the northern interior. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Surf conditions will also deteriorate through the week, due to onshore winds and building ocean swells. This will increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, along with rough surf. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions are expected as persistent onshore flow works to build seas up to 5 ft. Wind speeds of 15-20 kt are expected with gusts 20-25 kt. Small craft should exercise caution over the local waters. In addition, isolated showers will continue to stream from east to west over the Atlantic through daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday-Friday (modified previous...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. A Small Craft Advisory begins for the offshore waters late Tuesday morning and will likely expand to the rest of the local waters through midweek. Onshore flow will persist , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters Wednesday and Thursday. Winds decrease to around 10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday, and 7-9 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. Increasing rain and storm chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and lightning storms remaining possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 124 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mainly VFR with gusty easterly winds and brief SHRA impacts. Added VCSH to all terminals through 00Z for ISO SHRA that could cause MVFR-IFR VIS impacts too short for TEMPOs (less than 30 minutes). Confidence in onshore moving SHRA after 00Z too low for even VCSH, but can`t rule out a brief overnight impact at the coastal terminals. Winds Erly 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts this afternoon settle to 10-15 kts overnight, then return to 15-20G25-30 kts Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 87 76 87 / 20 30 20 50 MCO 74 88 75 88 / 10 30 20 40 MLB 77 87 77 87 / 20 50 40 50 VRB 76 87 76 87 / 20 50 40 50 LEE 75 90 76 91 / 10 20 10 30 SFB 74 89 75 89 / 10 30 20 40 ORL 75 89 76 89 / 10 30 20 40 FPR 75 87 76 87 / 20 50 50 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Haley