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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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186 FXUS62 KMLB 250615 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 215 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR through at least 14Z within a weak pressure gradient environment. On Tue, light SW to W flow will turn onshore (E) around 10 knots btwn 16Z-18Z at coastal terminals, increasing up to 15 knots possible toward 00Z. The sea breeze storms should stay just west of the coastal terminals so will handle with VCTS there. Higher coverage of TSRA forecast over the interior assocd with boundary collisions aft 20Z. Have added a TEMPO for MVFR conds in TSRA for MCO/SFB/LEE btwn 21Z-24Z with lingering VCSH a couple/few hours past 00Z. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The east coast sea breeze over-performed a bit, pushing winds to 15-20 mph with higher gusts for a few hours after 5 PM. This was higher than pretty much all guidance, with only the NBM 90th percentile coming close, so updated winds through the evening with that plus a few upward nudges, then diminishing through the late evening and early overnight, which has been working out pretty well. Conversely, PoPs under- performed due to high bias in the NBM. Updated PoPs with latest high-res guidance which brought them down a fair amount to 30-50 pct in the late afternoon, decreasing through the evening to 20-30 pct across the interior by 10 PM, and a few showers lingering after midnight before a mostly dry rest of the night. No changes to the rest of the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain over the local waters while shifting slightly south and eastward. Winds will be southerly flow into this evening, with winds shifting southwest overnight. Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A surface ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore southwest to west component into mid week. Seas will generally be 2 ft with seas up to 3ft well offshore. Deep moisture will continue to promote higher coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 75 92 75 / 50 30 70 20 MCO 94 75 91 76 / 70 60 70 20 MLB 91 75 91 75 / 50 30 70 30 VRB 91 74 91 74 / 50 40 70 20 LEE 94 76 93 76 / 70 40 70 20 SFB 94 76 93 76 / 60 50 70 20 ORL 94 76 92 77 / 70 60 70 20 FPR 92 74 91 74 / 60 40 70 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Kelly